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Flexible Distributed Lags

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  • Chotikapanich, Duangkamon
  • Griffiths, William E.

Abstract

In econometrics there is a long history of using continuous functions to force distributed lag coefficients to behave in an economically accepted way. For example, geometrically declining lags have often been used to model coefficients that we believe should be declining. Polynomial lags have been used to model lag coefficients expected to increase and then decrease. In this paper a more flexible way of imposing such prior information is investigated. Inequality constraints are used to impose knowledge about the relative magnitudes of coefficients without forcing them to lie on a smooth continuous curve. A Metropolis algorithm is used to get posterior density functions for the lag coefficients and functions of those coefficients for the Nerlove orange data and the Almon capital expenditures data.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its series 2000 Conference (44th), January 23-25, 2000, Sydney, Australia with number 123623.

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Date of creation: 20 Jan 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aare00:123623

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Keywords: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

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  1. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1981. "A model for non-negative and non-positive distributed lag functions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 211-219, June.
  2. Griffiths, William E & Chotikapanich, Duangkamon, 1997. "Bayesian Methodology for Imposing Inequality Constraints on a Linear Expenditure System with Demographic Factors," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(69), pages 321-41, December.
  3. Dufour, J.M. & Kiviet, J.F., 1995. "Exact Inference Methods for First-Order Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models," Cahiers de recherche 9547, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en ├ęconomie quantitative, CIREQ.
  4. Siddhartha Chib & Edward Greenberg, 1994. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometrics 9408001, EconWPA, revised 24 Oct 1994.
  5. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
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