IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aep/anales/4162.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Tipo de cambio real y crecimiento económico: Un análisis de robustez

Author

Listed:
  • Esteban Javier Leguizamón
  • Pablo Alfredo Gluzmann

Abstract

El presente trabajo estudia la robustez de la relación entre un tipo de cambio real alto (depreciado) y el crecimiento económico. Se propone utilizar una estrategia de identificación que permita evaluar el comportamiento del coeficiente de interés frente a la inclusión de diferentes covariables. En línea con la literatura previa, la evidencia obtenida mediante la metodología propuesta parece mostrar que una depreciación real tiene efectos positivos sobre el crecimiento económico. Los resultados parecen ser robustos a la inclusión de la mayoría de las variables de control propuestas por la literatura como determinantes del crecimiento económico y el tipo de cambio real.

Suggested Citation

  • Esteban Javier Leguizamón & Pablo Alfredo Gluzmann, 2019. "Tipo de cambio real y crecimiento económico: Un análisis de robustez," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4162, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    • Handle: RePEc:aep:anales:4162
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://aaep.org.ar/works/works2019/leguizamon.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Razmi, Arslan & Rapetti, Martin & Skott, Peter, 2012. "The real exchange rate and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 151-169.
    2. Rapetti Martin, 2013. "Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in a Competitive Real Exchange Rate Strategy for Development," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-31, March.
    3. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Gluzmann, Pablo Alfredo, 2013. "Fear of appreciation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 233-247.
    4. José De Gregorio, 2011. "Acumulación de reservas internacionales en economías emergentes," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, December.
    5. Paulo Gala, 2007. "Real Exchange Rate Levels And Economic Development: Theoretical Analysis And Empirical Evidence," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 037, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    6. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    7. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 153-230.
    8. Mauro, Paolo & Romeu, Rafael & Binder, Ariel & Zaman, Asad, 2015. "A modern history of fiscal prudence and profligacy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 55-70.
    9. Gluzmann, Pablo & Guzman, Martin, 2017. "Assessing the robustness of the relationship between financial reforms and banking crises," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 32-47.
    10. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2000. "Capital Market Liberalization, Economic Growth, and Instability," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1075-1086, June.
    11. Roberto Frankel & Martín Rapetti, 2010. "A Concise History of Exchange Rate Regimes in Latin America," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2010-11, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    12. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    13. Roberto Frenkel & Lance Taylor, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate, Monetary Policy and Employment," Working Papers 19, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    15. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
    16. Martín Rapetti, 2013. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: Some Observations on the Possible Channels," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2013-11, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    17. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    18. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    19. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
    20. Mart�n Rapetti & Peter Skott & Arslan Razmi, 2012. "The real exchange rate and economic growth: are developing countries different?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 735-753, April.
    21. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    22. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1974. "The Demand for International Reserves by Developed and Less-Developed Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 41(161), pages 14-24, February.
    23. Ben-Bassat, Avraham & Gottlieb, Daniel, 1992. "Optimal international reserves and sovereign risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 345-362, November.
    24. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
    25. Korinek, Anton & Servén, Luis, 2016. "Undervaluation through foreign reserve accumulation: Static losses, dynamic gains," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 104-136.
    26. Rafael Puyana, 2010. "El efecto Balassa-Samuelson en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 7801, Banco de la Republica.
    27. Ronald MacDonald & Flávio Vieira, "undated". "A panel data investigation of real exchange rate misalignment and growth," Working Papers 2010_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    28. Carlos Goncalves, "undated". "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth: A Myth?," IMF Working Papers 17/400, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Ricardo Bebczuk & Arturo Galindo & Ugo Panizza, 2010. "An Evaluation of the Contractionary Devaluation Hypothesis," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Hadi Salehi Esfahani & Giovanni Facchini & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings (ed.), Economic Development in Latin America, chapter 8, pages 102-117, Palgrave Macmillan.
    30. Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Cottani, Joaquin A & Cavallo, Domingo F & Khan, M Shahbaz, 1990. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Performance in LDCs," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 61-76, October.
    32. Guzman, Martin & Ocampo, Jose Antonio & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2018. "Real exchange rate policies for economic development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 51-62.
    33. Rafael S. M. Ribeiro & John S. L. McCombie & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2016. "Exchange Rate, Income Distribution and Technical Change in a Balance-of-Payments Constrained Growth Model," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 545-565, October.
    34. Ricardo N. Bebczuk & Ugo Panizza & Arturo Galindo, 2006. "An Evaluation of the Contractionary Devaluation Hypothesis," Research Department Publications 4486, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    35. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates: An Overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    36. Carlos Eduardo Gonçalves & Mauro Rodrigues, 2017. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth: A Myth?," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2017_07, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    37. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Firat Demir & Arslan Razmi, 2022. "The Real Exchange Rate And Development Theory, Evidence, Issues And Challenges," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 386-428, April.
    2. Frenkel, Roberto & Rapetti, Martin, 2014. "The real exchange rate as a target of macroeconomic policy," MPRA Paper 59335, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ribeiro, Rafael S.M. & McCombie, John S.L. & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2020. "Does real exchange rate undervaluation really promote economic growth?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 408-417.
    4. Ramos-Herrera María del Carmen, 2022. "How Equilibrium Exchange Rate Misalignments Influence on Economic Growth? Evidence for European Countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 199-211, January.
    5. Martín Rapetti, 2013. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: Some Observations on the Possible Channels," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2013-11, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    6. Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2023. "Economic growth and deviations from the equilibrium exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 764-786.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    8. Razmi, Arslan & Rapetti, Martin & Skott, Peter, 2012. "The real exchange rate and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 151-169.
    9. Amor, Thouraya Hadj & Nouira, Ridha & Rault, Christophe & Sova, Anamaria Diana, 2023. "Real exchange rate misalignments and economic growth in Tunisia: New evidence from a threshold analysis of asymmetric adjustments," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 215-227.
    10. Guzman, Martin & Ocampo, Jose Antonio & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2018. "Real exchange rate policies for economic development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 51-62.
    11. Erten, Bilge & Metzger, Martina, 2019. "The real exchange rate, structural change, and female labor force participation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 296-312.
    12. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    13. Emiliano Libman & Juan Antonio Montecino & Arslan Razmi, 2019. "Sustained investment surges," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1071-1095.
    14. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2015. "Crecimiento económico y desalineación del tipo de cambio real en la República Dominicana: ¿Hay alguna relación? [Economic growth and the real exchange rate misalignments in the Dominican Republic: ," MPRA Paper 70974, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Samba Mbaye, 2012. "Real Exchange Rate Undervaluation and Growth: Is there a Total Factor Productivity Growth Channel?," CERDI Working papers halshs-00687948, HAL.
    16. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    17. Missio, Fabricio & Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Jayme, Frederico G., 2017. "Endogenous elasticities and the impact of the real exchange rate on structural economic dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 67-75.
    18. Daren Conrad & Jaymieon Jagessar, 2018. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-23, September.
    19. Guilherme R. Magacho & John S. L. McCombie, 2020. "Structural change and cumulative causation: A Kaldorian approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 633-660, July.
    20. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2021. "Thirlwall's law: Binding-constraint or centre-of-gravity? A possible Kaleckian solution," Department of Economics University of Siena 853, Department of Economics, University of Siena.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tipo de cambio real; Crecimiento económico; Robustez;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aep:anales:4162. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Juan Manuel Quintero (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeppea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.