Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

An Evaluation of the Contractionary Devaluation Hypothesis

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ricardo Bebczuk
  • Arturo Galindo
  • Ugo Panizza

Abstract

Recent empirical and theoretical literature on the impact of real exchange rate devaluations on economic performance questions the traditional expansionary effect generated within standard Mundell-Fleming models. Contractionary devaluations may arise when firms face maturity or currency mismatches that, when faced with real exchange rate depreciations, lead to balance-sheet effects that erode firms’ wealth and lead to an output contraction. While some authors show that the standard Mundell-Fleming result may hold even in the presence of currency mismatches, others point out that, if the balance sheet effect is large enough, devaluations can be contractionary. Using a large panel of 57 countries across the world and various newly constructed measures of dollarization, we test whether the balance sheet effect hypothesis has been relevant during the past decades in explaining economic downturns. Additionally, we explore the channels through which devaluations can be contractionary; in particular, we explore whether investment and consumption decisions are negatively affected by exchange rate devaluations under currency mismatches.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.depeco.econo.unlp.edu.ar/doctrab/doc64.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata in its series Department of Economics, Working Papers with number 064.

as in new window
Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lap:wpaper:064

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Calle 48 No555 - La Plata (1900)
Phone: 21- 1466
Fax: 54-21-25-9536
Web page: http://www.depeco.econo.unlp.edu.ar/doctrab.php
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Currency depreciation; Debt composition; Balance sheet effects.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Loo-Kung, Rudy, 2006. "Relative price volatility under Sudden Stops: The relevance of balance sheet effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 231-254, June.
  2. Martinez, Lorenza & Werner, Alejandro, 2002. "The exchange rate regime and the currency composition of corporate debt: the Mexican experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 315-334, December.
  3. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Ernesto Schargrodsky & Sebastián Galiani, 2003. "Finantial Dollarization and Debt Deflation under a Currency Board," Business School Working Papers tres, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  4. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2005. "Financial Dollarisation: Evaluating The Consequences," Business School Working Papers findollarisation, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  5. Arturo Galindo & Alejandro Izquierdo & José M. Montero, 2006. "Real exchange rates, dollarization and industrial employment in Latin America," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0601, Banco de Espa�a.
  6. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
  7. Echeverry, Juan Carlos & Fergusson, Leopoldo & Steiner, Roberto & Aguilar, Camila, 2003. "'Dollar' debt in Colombian firms: are sinners punished during devaluations?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 417-449, December.
  8. J. Saul Lizondo & Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Contractionary Devaluation in Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 182-227, March.
  9. Baer, Werner & Maloney, William, 1997. "Neoliberalism and income distribution in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-327, March.
  10. Bonomo, Marco & Martins, Betina & Pinto, Rodrigo, 2003. "Debt composition and exchange rate balance sheet effect in Brazil: a firm level analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 368-396, December.
  11. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Galindo, Arturo & Panizza, Ugo & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2003. "Debt composition and balance sheet effects of currency depreciation: a summary of the micro evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 330-339, December.
  13. Felipe Larrain & Jeffrey Sachs, 1986. "Contractionary Devaluation, and Dynamic Adjustment of Exports and Wages," NBER Working Papers 2078, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Benavente, Jose Miguel & Johnson, Christian A. & Morande, Felipe G., 2003. "Debt composition and balance sheet effects of exchange rate depreciations: a firm-level analysis for Chile," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 397-416, December.
  15. Aguiar, Mark, 2005. "Investment, devaluation, and foreign currency exposure: The case of Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 95-113, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Saravelo, George & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "Can Leading Indicators Assess Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis," Scholarly Articles 5027952, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  2. Bussière, Matthieu & Saxena, Sweta C. & Tovar, Camilo E., 2012. "Chronicle of currency collapses: Re examining the effects on output," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 680-708.
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Michael Bordo & David Stuckler & Chris Meissner, 2009. "Foreign Currency Debt, Financial Crises and Economic Growth: A Long Run View," Working Papers 921, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  5. Erdal ÖZMEN & Cihan YALÇIN, 2007. "Küresel finansal riskler karşısında Türkiye’de reel sektörün finansal yapısı ve borç dolarizasyonu," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 22(258), pages 5-39.
  6. Towbin, Pascal & Weber, Sebastian, 2013. "Limits of floating exchange rates: The role of foreign currency debt and import structure," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 179-194.
  7. Ponomarenko, Alexey & Solovyeva, Alexandra & Vasilieva, Elena, 2012. "Financial dollarization in Russia: causes and consequences," BOFIT Discussion Papers 36/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lap:wpaper:064. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diego Fernandez Felices).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.