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The Long Term Development of OECD Export Specialisation Patterns: De-specialisation and "Stickiness"

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  • Bent Dalum
  • Keld Laursen
  • Gert Villumsen

Abstract

The paper examines an issue related to the discussion of national specificity - whether the group of OECD countries are characterised by a high degree of stability of their export specialisation patterns at the country level or not. During a period of nearly three decades from 1965 to 1992, 20 OECD countries are examined. In addition we test whether the countries, have become more or less specialised in terms of trade specialisation in the period in question. In order to fulfill these aims we examine the sensitivity for, firstly; the level of aggregation, and secondly; the kind of statistical methodology applied. In this context we distinguish between specialisation (or de-specialisation) in trade patterns on the one hand, and divergence (or on the contrary convergence) in trade patterns on the other. A specialisation process refers to a process in which specialisation intra-country becomes more dispersed (and counter-wise for de-specialisation). On the contrary, a divergence process refers to a process in which countries become more different in terms of specialisation in a particular sector, across countries (and counter-wise for convergence). The results show that elements of 'stickiness' and incremental change are combined for what concerns the intra-country analysis. In addition there is a (however slow) tendency for countries to de-specialise in terms of exports. The sector-wise results display convergence both in terms of beta- and sigma -convergence.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies in its series DRUID Working Papers with number 96-14.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:aal:abbswp:96-14

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Web page: http://www.druid.dk/

Related research

Keywords: Technological change; cumulativeness; international export specialisation patterns; nati;

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References

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  1. Giovanni Dosi & Christopher Freeman & Richard Nelson & Gerarld Silverberg & Luc Soete (ed.), 1988. "Technical Change and Economic Theory," LEM Book Series, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy, number dosietal-1988, June.
  2. Archibugi, Daniele & Pianta, Mario, 1994. "Aggregate Convergence and Sectoral Specialization in Innovation," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 17-33, March.
  3. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
  4. Friedman, Milton, 1992. "Do Old Fallacies Ever Die?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 2129-32, December.
  5. Fagerberg, Jan, 1995. "User-Producer Interaction, Learning and Comparative Advantage," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 243-56, February.
  6. Dosi, Giovanni, 1988. "Sources, Procedures, and Microeconomic Effects of Innovation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 1120-71, September.
  7. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
  8. Quah, Danny, 1993. " Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(4), pages 427-43, December.
  9. Freeman, Chris, 1994. "The Economics of Technical Change," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(5), pages 463-514, October.
  10. Pavitt, Keith, 1984. "Sectoral patterns of technical change: Towards a taxonomy and a theory," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 343-373, December.
  11. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Magnus Holmén & Staffan A Jacobsson, 1998. "Method for Identifying Actors in a Knowledge Based Cluster," DRUID Working Papers 98-26, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
  2. Jalal El Ouardighi, 2005. "La spécialisation des activités technologiques des régions européennes : une approche empirique de la convergence," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 71(3), pages 315-343.
  3. Jukka Kaisla, 1998. "The Market Process and the Emergence of the Firm Some Indications of Entrepreneurship Under Genuine uncertainty," DRUID Working Papers 98-17, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
  4. Keld Laursen, 1996. "The Impact of Technological Opportunity on the Dynamics of Trade Performance," DRUID Working Papers 96-12, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
  5. Kirsten Foss & Nicolai J. Foss, 1999. "Organizing Economic Experiments The Role of Firms," DRUID Working Papers 99-5, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
  6. Taylor, Timothy G. & Francis, Brian, 2003. "Agricultural Export Diversification in Latin America and the Caribbean," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35.
  7. Jalal El Ouardighi, 2005. "La spécialisation des activités technologiques des régions européennes : une approche empirique de la convergence," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2005033, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  8. Bengt-Åke Lundvall & Frank Skov Kristensen, 1997. "Organisational Change, Innovation and Human Resource Development as a Response to Increased Competition," DRUID Working Papers 97-16, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
  9. Keld Laursen, 1998. "Do Export and Technological Specialisation Patterns Co-evolve in Terms of Convergence or Divergence? Evidence From 19 OECD Countries, 1971-1991," DRUID Working Papers 98-18, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
  10. Uchida, Yuichiro & Cook, Paul, 2005. "The Transformation of Competitive Advantage in East Asia: An Analysis of Technological and Trade Specialization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 701-728, May.
  11. Dieter Ernst, 1999. "Responses to the Crisis Constraints to a Rapid Trade Adjustment in East Asia�s Electronics Industry," DRUID Working Papers 99-2, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
  12. Uchida, Yuichiro & Cook, Paul, 2004. "The Transformation of Competitive Advantage in East Asia: An Analysis of Technological and Trade Specialisation," Centre on Regulation and Competition (CRC) Working papers 30636, University of Manchester, Institute for Development Policy and Management (IDPM).

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