We employ a distribution dynamics approach to examine the empirical dynamics of technological specialisation in industrial countries. Using patent data, distributions of a specialisation index and Markov stochastic kernels are estimated non-parametrically for each country. Three are the main findings. There are strong country size effects: economically “large” countries spread their innovation activities across a wider range of technologies and display a higher degree of persistence. Mobility is nevertheless high. Mobility is also asymmetric: it appears mostly difficult for a country to improve the specialisation level in very disadvantaged technologies, while high comparative advantages in technologies show a fairly general tendency to revert towards lower specialisation levels. These findings cast doubt on the theory of technological accumulation and path-dependence, hence on its implication of persistence in national patterns of industrial specialisation and on the effectiveness of targeted industrial and technology policies.
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Paper provided by CESPRI, Centre for Research on Innovation and Internationalisation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy in its series CESPRI Working Papers with number
118.
Length: 34 pages Date of creation: Nov 2000 Date of revision:
Nov 2000 Handle: RePEc:cri:cespri:wp118
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Find related papers by JEL classification: C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - General C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade O34 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - Intellectual Property Rights O57 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
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