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To What Extent Does In‐Person Schooling Contribute To The Spread Of Covid‐19? Evidence From Michigan And Washington

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  • Dan Goldhaber
  • Scott A. Imberman
  • Katharine O. Strunk
  • Bryant G. Hopkins
  • Nate Brown
  • Erica Harbatkin
  • Tara Kilbride

Abstract

In this paper we use data from Michigan and Washington on COVID case rates at the county level linked to information on the instructional modality offered by local public school districts during the 2020/2021 school year to assess the relationship between modality and COVID spread. We focus primarily on COVID case rates, but also provide estimates for hospitalizations (in Washington only) and deaths. District and month fixed effects models that exploit within‐district (over time) variation in instructional modality and account for time‐invariant district factors show that, in both states, in‐person/hybrid schooling relative to remote instruction can lead to increases in COVID spread in communities with moderate to high levels of preexisting COVID cases. Event study estimates show sharp increases in Michigan case rates after a district opens for in‐person or hybrid schooling, but these largely fade out over two months.

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  • Dan Goldhaber & Scott A. Imberman & Katharine O. Strunk & Bryant G. Hopkins & Nate Brown & Erica Harbatkin & Tara Kilbride, 2022. "To What Extent Does In‐Person Schooling Contribute To The Spread Of Covid‐19? Evidence From Michigan And Washington," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 318-349, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jpamgt:v:41:y:2022:i:1:p:318-349
    DOI: 10.1002/pam.22354
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    1. Marc Diederichs & Reyn van Ewijk & Ingo E. Isphording & Nico Pestel, 2022. "Schools under mandatory testing can mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 119(26), pages 2201724119-, June.
    2. Rufrancos, Héctor & Moro, Mirko & Moore, Eva, 2021. "The impact of University reopenings on COVID-19 cases in Scotland," GLO Discussion Paper Series 868, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Dirk Krueger & André Kurmann & Etienne Lalé & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2023. "The Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Policy Responses to the Covid-19 School Closures," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 35-98, March.
    4. Svaleryd, Helena & Vlachos, Jonas, 2022. "COVID-19 and School Closures," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1008, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Koppa, Vijetha & West, Jeremy, 2022. "School reopenings, COVID-19, and employment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    6. Dena Bravata & Jonathan H. Cantor & Neeraj Sood & Christopher M. Whaley, 2021. "Back to School: The Effect of School Visits During COVID-19 on COVID-19 Transmission," NBER Working Papers 28645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Victor Chernozhukov & Hiroyuki Kasahara & Paul Schrimpf, 2021. "The Association of Opening K-12 Schools and Colleges with the Spread of Covid-19 in the United States: County-Level Panel Data Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 8929, CESifo.
    8. Werner, Katharina & Woessmann, Ludger, 2021. "The Legacy of COVID-19 in Education," IZA Discussion Papers 14796, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Isphording, Ingo E. & Lipfert, Marc & Pestel, Nico, 2021. "Does re-opening schools contribute to the spread of SARS-CoV-2? Evidence from staggered summer breaks in Germany," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    10. Casey B. Mulligan, 2021. "The incidence and magnitude of the health costs of in-person schooling during the COVID-19 pandemic," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(3), pages 303-332, September.
    11. Lattanzio, Salvatore, 2024. "Schools and the transmission of Sars-Cov-2: Evidence from Italy," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    12. Victor Chernozhukov & Hiroyuki Kasahara & Paul Schrimpf, 2021. "The association of opening K–12 schools with the spread of COVID-19 in the United States: County-level panel data analysis," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(42), pages 2103420118-, October.
    13. Clare Halloran & Rebecca Jack & James C. Okun & Emily Oster, 2021. "Pandemic Schooling Mode and Student Test Scores: Evidence from US States," NBER Working Papers 29497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Thomas Dee & Elizabeth Huffaker & Cheryl Phillips & Eric Sagara, 2021. "The Revealed Preferences for School Reopening: Evidence from Public-School Disenrollment," NBER Working Papers 29156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education

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