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Changes in the Federal Reserve Communication Strategy: A Structural Investigation

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  • YASUO HIROSE
  • TAKUSHI KUROZUMI

Abstract

This paper structurally investigates the changes in the Fed's communication strategy since the mid‐1990s through the lens of anticipated and unanticipated disturbances to a Taylor rule. The anticipated disturbances are identified using Treasury bond yield data in estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a term structure of interest rates. Our estimation results show that the Fed's decisions were unanticipated for market participants until 1999, but thereafter a larger portion of its future policy actions tended to be communicated in advance. We also find that the relative contribution of the anticipated monetary policy disturbances to macroeconomic fluctuations became larger after 1999. The bond yield data is indispensable to these results, since it contains crucial information on an expected future path of the federal funds rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi, 2017. "Changes in the Federal Reserve Communication Strategy: A Structural Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(1), pages 171-185, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:49:y:2017:i:1:p:171-185
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12378
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nadav Ben Zeev & Christopher Gunn & Hashmat Khan, 2020. "Monetary News Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(7), pages 1793-1820, October.
    2. Harrison, Richard, 2015. "Estimating the effects of forward guidance in rational expectations models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 196-213.
    3. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2016. "Forward Guidance as a Monetary Policy Rule," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    4. Ippei Fujiwara & Yuichiro Waki, 2022. "The Delphic forward guidance puzzle in New Keynesian models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 280-301, October.
    5. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi, 2017. "Changes in the Federal Reserve Communication Strategy: A Structural Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(1), pages 171-185, February.
    6. Hirose, Yasuo & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2021. "Identifying News Shocks With Forecast Data," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(6), pages 1442-1471, September.
    7. Virginia Queijo von Heideken & Ferre De Graeve, 2012. "Fiscal policy in contemporary DSGE models," 2012 Meeting Papers 74, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Fabio Milani & John Treadwell, 2012. "The Effects of Monetary Policy “News” and “Surprises”," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1667-1692, December.
    9. Masazumi Hattori & Tomohide Mineyama & Jouchi Nakajima, 2021. "Taylor Rule Yield Curve," Working Papers e156, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    10. Hamid Baghestani & Sehar Fatima, 2021. "Growth in US Durables Spending: Assessing the Impact of Consumer Ability and Willingness to Buy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 55-69, April.
    11. Fabio Milani & John Treadwell, 2012. "The Effects of Monetary Policy “News” and “Surprises”," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1667-1692, December.
    12. Ippei Fujiwara & Yuichiro Waki, 2022. "The Delphic forward guidance puzzle in New Keynesian models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 280-301, October.
    13. Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matt, 2021. "Optimal policy with occasionally binding constraints: piecewise linear solution methods," Bank of England working papers 911, Bank of England.
    14. Hanna O. Sakhno, 2018. "Central Bank Communication In The Xxi Century: A Survey Of Theory And Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 16/PSP/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    15. Hüpper, Florian & Kempa, Bernd, 2023. "Inflation targeting and inflation communication of the Federal Reserve: Words and deeds," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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