IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/organi/v49y2016i3p129-143n1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Understanding the Structural Complexity of Induced Travel Demand in Decision-Making: A System Dynamics Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Angarita-Zapata Juan S.
  • Andrade-Sosa Hugo H.

    (School of Systems Engineering and Informatics, Universidad Industrial de Santander, SIMON Research Group, Colombia)

  • Parra-Valencia Jorge A.

    (School of Systems Engineering, Universidad Autónoma de Bucaramanga, Systems Thinking Research Group, Colombia)

Abstract

Background and purpose: Induced travel demand (ITD) is a phenomenon where road construction increases vehicles’ kilometers traveled. It has been approached with econometric models that use elasticities as measure to estimate how much travel demand can be induced by new roads. However, there is a lack of “white-box” models with causal hypotheses that explain the structural complexity underlying this phenomenon. We propose a system dynamics model based on a feedback mechanism to explain structurally ITD.

Suggested Citation

  • Angarita-Zapata Juan S. & Andrade-Sosa Hugo H. & Parra-Valencia Jorge A., 2016. "Understanding the Structural Complexity of Induced Travel Demand in Decision-Making: A System Dynamics Approach," Organizacija, Sciendo, vol. 49(3), pages 129-143, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:organi:v:49:y:2016:i:3:p:129-143:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/orga-2016-0013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/orga-2016-0013
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/orga-2016-0013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Noland, Robert B., 2001. "Relationships between highway capacity and induced vehicle travel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 47-72, January.
    2. Journal of Economics Bibliography, 2015. "New Economics Journals," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 245-261, December.
    3. Gilles Duranton & Matthew A. Turner, 2011. "The Fundamental Law of Road Congestion: Evidence from US Cities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2616-2652, October.
    4. Cervero, Robert, 2001. "Road Expansion, Urban Growth, and Induced Travel: A Path Analysis," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt05x370hr, University of California Transportation Center.
    5. Daniel J. Graham & Emma J. McCoy & David A. Stephens, 2014. "Quantifying Causal Effects of Road Network Capacity Expansions on Traffic Volume and Density via a Mixed Model Propensity Score Estimator," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(508), pages 1440-1449, December.
    6. Robert Cervero & Mark Hansen, 2002. "Induced Travel Demand and Induced Road Investment: A Simultaneous Equation Analysis," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(3), pages 469-490, September.
    7. Hymel, Kent M. & Small, Kenneth A. & Dender, Kurt Van, 2010. "Induced demand and rebound effects in road transport," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1220-1241, December.
    8. Robert Noland & William Cowart, 2000. "Analysis of Metropolitan Highway Capacity and the growth in vehicle miles of travel," Transportation, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 363-390, December.
    9. Concas, Sisinnio, 2012. "Highway capital expenditures and induced vehicle travel," MPRA Paper 40757, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Aug 2012.
    10. Hansen, Mark, 1995. "Do New Highways Generate Traffic?," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt3rj612zh, University of California Transportation Center.
    11. Journal of Economics Bibliography, 2015. "New Economics Journals," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 151-163, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hymel, Kent, 2019. "If you build it, they will drive: Measuring induced demand for vehicle travel in urban areas," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 57-66.
    2. Dimitropoulos, Alexandros & Oueslati, Walid & Sintek, Christina, 2018. "The rebound effect in road transport: A meta-analysis of empirical studies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 163-179.
    3. Zolnik, Edmund J., 2018. "Effects of additional capacity on vehicle kilometers of travel in the U.S.: Evidence from National Household Travel Surveys," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-9.
    4. Hsu, Wen-Tai & Zhang, Hongliang, 2014. "The fundamental law of highway congestion revisited: Evidence from national expressways in Japan," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 65-76.
    5. Bucsky, Péter & Juhász, Mattias, 2022. "Long-term evidence on induced traffic: A case study on the relationship between road traffic and capacity of Budapest bridges," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 244-257.
    6. González, Rosa Marina & Marrero, Gustavo A., 2012. "Induced road traffic in Spanish regions: A dynamic panel data model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 435-445.
    7. Jonathan E. Hughes & Daniel Kaffine, 2013. "When is Encouraging Consumption of Common Property Second Best? Sorting, Congestion and Entry in the Commons," Working Papers 2013-05, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    8. Jihye Byun & Sungjin Park & Kitae Jang, 2017. "Rebound Effect or Induced Demand? Analyzing the Compound Dual Effects on VMT in the U.S," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-10, February.
    9. Kim, Jinwon, 2022. "Does roadwork improve road speed? Evidence from urban freeways in California," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    10. Jonathan E. Hughes & Daniel Kaffine, 2019. "When Should Drivers Be Encouraged To Carpool In Hov Lanes?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 667-684, January.
    11. Weis, Claude & Axhausen, Kay W., 2009. "Induced travel demand: Evidence from a pseudo panel data based structural equations model," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 8-18.
    12. Gilles Duranton & Matthew A. Turner, 2011. "The Fundamental Law of Road Congestion: Evidence from US Cities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2616-2652, October.
    13. Volker, Jamey M. B. & Handy, Susan L., 2022. "Updating the Induced Travel Calculator," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt1hh9b9mf, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    14. Philip Heidt & M. Taha Kasim, 2020. "The effects of highways on school segregation," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(5), pages 1261-1280, October.
    15. Piyapong Jiwattanakulpaisarn & Robert Noland & Daniel Graham & John Polak, 2006. "Highway Infrastructure Investment and Regional Employment Growth: Dynamic Panel Regression Analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa06p207, European Regional Science Association.
    16. Siqi Song & Chen-Chieh Feng & Mi Diao, 2020. "Vehicle quota control, transport infrastructure investment and vehicle travel: A pseudo panel analysis," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 57(12), pages 2527-2546, September.
    17. Phil Goodwin & Robert Noland, 2003. "Building new roads really does create extra traffic: a response to Prakash et al," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(13), pages 1451-1457.
    18. Wesley E. Marshall & Eric Dumbaugh, 2020. "Revisiting the relationship between traffic congestion and the economy: a longitudinal examination of U.S. metropolitan areas," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 275-314, February.
    19. Deakin, Elizabeth & Dock, Fred & Garry, Gordon & Handy, Susan & McNally, Michael & Sall, Elizabeth & Skabardonis, Alex & Walker, Joan & Rheinhardt, Karl, 2020. "Calculating and Forecasting Induced Vehicle-Miles of Travel Resulting from Highway Projects: Findings and Recommendations from an Expert Panel," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt15d2t2gf, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    20. Volker, Jamey M.B. PhD & Handy, Susan L PhD, 2021. "The Induced Travel Calculator and Its Applications," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt2nr6q5rc, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:organi:v:49:y:2016:i:3:p:129-143:n:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.