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Does Stock Market Performance Influence Retirement Intentions?

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  • Gopi Shah Goda
  • John B. Shoven
  • Sita Nataraj Slavov

Abstract

Media reports predicted that the stock market decline in October 2008 would cause changes in retirement intentions, due to declines in retirement assets. We use panel data from the Health and Retirement Study to investigate the relationship between stock market performance and retirement intentions during 1998–2008, a period that includes the recent crisis. While we find a weak negative correlation between stock returns and retirement intentions, further investigation suggests that this relationship is not driven by wealth shocks brought about by stock market fluctuations, but by other factors that are correlated with both the stock market and retirement intentions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gopi Shah Goda & John B. Shoven & Sita Nataraj Slavov, 2012. "Does Stock Market Performance Influence Retirement Intentions?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 47(4), pages 1055-1081.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:47:y:2012:iv:1:p:1055-1081
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    Cited by:

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    3. Matthew D. Shapiro, 2010. "The Effects of the Financial Crisis on the Well-Being of Older Americans: Evidence from the Cognitive Economics Study," Working Papers wp228, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    4. Begley, Jaclene & Chan, Sewin, 2018. "The effect of housing wealth shocks on work and retirement decisions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 180-195.
    5. Gustafson, Matthew T., 2017. "The market sensitivity of retirement and defined contribution pensions: Evidence from the public sector," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 1-13.
    6. Chalmers, John & Johnson, Woodrow T. & Reuter, Jonathan, 2014. "The effect of pension design on employer costs and employee retirement choices: Evidence from Oregon," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 17-34.
    7. Clark, Robert L. & Morrill, Melinda Sandler & Vanderweide, David, 2014. "Defined benefit pension plan distribution decisions by public sector employees," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 73-88.
    8. de Bresser, Jochem & Kools, Lieke & Knoef, Marike, 2019. "Cutting one’s coat according to one’s cloth : How did the Great Recession affect retirement resources and expenditure goals?," Other publications TiSEM 9415a8f7-182f-4675-893e-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Stijn Dreesen & Sven Damen, 2023. "The accuracy of homeowners’ valuations in the twenty-first century," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 513-566, July.
    10. Butrica, Barbara A. & Karamcheva, Nadia S, 2020. "Is Rising Household Debt Affecting Retirement Decisions?," IZA Discussion Papers 13182, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Barbara Broadway & John P. de New, 2021. "The Importance of Economic Expectations for Retirement Entry," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(1), pages 37-60, March.
    12. Andrew Foote & Michel Grosz & Ann Stevens, 2019. "Locate Your Nearest Exit: Mass Layoffs and Local Labor Market Response," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 72(1), pages 101-126, January.
    13. Steven G. Allen & Robert L. Clark & Jennifer Maki & Melinda Sandler Morrill, 2013. "Golden Years or Financial Fears? Decision Making After Retirement Seminars," NBER Working Papers 19231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Leora Friedberg & Michael T. Owyang & Wei Sun & Anthony Webb, 2017. "How Do Local Labor Markets Affect Retirement?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 99(3), pages 259-278.
    15. Jesus Ferreiro & Felipe Serrano, 2012. "Expectations, uncertainty and institutions. An application to the analysis of social security reforms," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 253-266, October.
    16. John Ameriks & Andrew Caplin & Minjoon Lee & Matthew D. Shapiro & Christopher Tonetti, 2015. "The Wealth of Wealthholders," NBER Working Papers 20972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Frank Caliendo & Maria Casanova & Aspen Gorry & Sita Nataraj Slavov, 2023. "Retirement Timing Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence and Quantitative Evaluation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 226-266, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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