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Retirement and the Stock Market Bubble

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  • Alan L. Gustman
  • Thomas L. Steinmeier

Abstract

This paper specifies and estimates a structural dynamic stochastic model of the way individuals make retirement and saving choices in an uncertain world, and applies that model to analyze the effects of the stock market bubble on retirement behavior. The model includes individual variation both in retirement preferences and in time preferences. Estimates are based on information covering the period 1992 through 2000 from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a panel survey of retirement age respondents and their spouses. The extraordinary returns in the stock market in the late 1990's, which more than doubled stock prices and unexpectedly increased the value of a mixed portfolio by nearly 60 percent, increased retirement for the HRS sample of workers by over 3 percentage points by the turn of the century and would have decreased the average retirement age by about a quarter of a year if it had not been interrupted. The subsequent decline in the market, which very nearly wiped out the gains that had been made during the preceding surge, effectively neutralized the effect of the preceding stock market gains on retirement. The effects of the bubble were to increase retirement as long as the bubble continued, but any continuing effects of the bubble after its end will probably be minimal.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9404.

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Date of creation: Dec 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9404

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  1. Berkovec, James & Stern, Steven, 1991. "Job Exit Behavior of Older Men," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 189-210, January.
  2. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2002. "The Social Security Early Entitlement Age in a Structural Model of Retirement and Wealth," Working Papers wp029, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  3. Eric French, 2004. "The Effects of Health, Wealth and Wages on Labor Supply and Retirement Behavior," 2004 Meeting Papers 96, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. John P. Rust, 1989. "A Dynamic Programming Model of Retirement Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Aging, pages 359-404 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. John P. Rust, 1990. "Behavior of Male Workers at the End of the Life Cycle: An Empirical Analysis of States and Controls," NBER Chapters, in: Issues in the Economics of Aging, pages 317-382 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Samwick, Andrew A., 1998. "Discount rate heterogeneity and social security reform," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 117-146, October.
  7. Courtney Coile & Peter Diamond & Jonathan Gruber & Alain Jousten, 1999. "Delays in Claiming Social Security Benefits," NBER Working Papers 7318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Diamond, P. A. & Hausman, J. A., 1984. "Individual retirement and savings behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 81-114.
  9. Alan L. Gustman & F. Thomas Juster, 1995. "Income and Wealth of Older American Households: Modeling Issues for Public Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alicia H. Munnell & Dan Muldoon & Steven A. Sass, 2009. "Recessions and Older Workers," Issues in Brief ib2009-9-2, Center for Retirement Research, revised Jan 2009.
  2. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2006. "Baby Boomer Retirement Security: The Roles of Planning, Financial Literacy, and Housing Wealth," CeRP Working Papers 54, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
  3. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier & Nahid Tabatabai, 2011. "How Did the Recession of 2007-2009 Affect the Wealth and Retirement of the Near Retirement Age Population in the Health and Retirement Study?," Working Papers wp253, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  4. Gustman, Alan L. & Steinmeier, Thomas L., 2012. "Policy effects in hyperbolic vs. exponential models of consumption and retirement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(5), pages 465-473.
  5. Alicia H. Munnell & Steven A. Sass, 2007. "The Labor Supply of Older Americans," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2007-12, Center for Retirement Research, revised Jun 2007.
  6. Chulhee Lee, 2010. "Labor-Force Participation of Older Males in Korea: 1955 to 2005," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 19, pages 281-313 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Ricky Kanabar & Peter Simmons, 2013. "To defer or not defer? State Pension in a Lifecycle Model," Discussion Papers 13/26, Department of Economics, University of York.
  8. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas Steinmeier, 2008. "How Changes in Social Security Affect Recent Retirement Trends," NBER Working Papers 14105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Chulhee Lee, 2009. "Labor Force Participation of Older Males in Korea: 1955-2005," NBER Working Papers 14800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Alan Gustman & Thomas Steinmeier, 2006. "Financial Risk, Retirement, Saving and Investment," Working Papers wp130, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  11. Courtney C. Coile & Phillip B. Levine, 2004. "Bulls, Bears, and Retirement Behavior," NBER Working Papers 10779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Annamaria Lusardi & Jason Beeler, 2006. "Savings Between Cohorts: The Role of Planning," Working Papers wp122, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  13. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier & Nahid Tabatabai, 2010. "What the Stock Market Decline Means for the Financial Security and Retirement Choices of the Near-Retirement Population," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 161-82, Winter.
  14. Alan Gustman & Thomas Steinmeier, 2006. "How Changes in Social Security Affect Retirement Trends," Working Papers wp127, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  15. Farhi, Emmanuel & Panageas, Stavros, 2007. "Saving and investing for early retirement: A theoretical analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 87-121, January.

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