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How Changes in Social Security Affect Recent Retirement Trends

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Author Info
Alan L. Gustman
Thomas Steinmeier
Abstract

According to CPS data, men 65 to 69 were about six percentage points less likely to be retired in 2004 than in 1992. CPS and Health and Retirement Study (HRS) data indicate a corresponding difference of 3 percentage points between 1998 and 2004. Simulations with a structural retirement model suggest changes in Social Security rules between 1992 and 2004 increased full time work of 65 to 67 year old married men by a little under 2 percentage points, about a 9 percent increase, and increased their labor force participation by between 1.4 and 2.2 percentage points, or 2 to 4 percent, depending on age. Social Security changes account for about one sixth of the increase in labor force participation between 1998 and 2004, for married men ages 65 to 67. These rule changes encourage deferring retirement from long term jobs, returning to full time work after retiring, and increasing partial retirement. Although married men in their fifties decrease their participation in the labor force over this period, this is not due to changes in Social Security, but may reflect other factors, including changes in disability.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14105.

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Date of creation: Jun 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14105

Note: AG LS PE
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty
J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped
J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Private Pensions
J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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  1. Coile, Courtney & Diamond, Peter & Gruber, Jonathan & Jousten, Alain, 2002. "Delays in claiming social security benefits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 357-385, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Alan Gustman & Thomas Steinmeier, 2007. "Projecting Behavioral Responses to the Next Generation of Retirement Policies," Working Papers wp153, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  3. Anderson, Patricia M & Gustman, Alan L & Steinmeier, Thomas L, 1999. "Trends in Male Labor Force Participation and Retirement: Some Evidence on the Role of Pensions and Social Security in the 1970s and 1980s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(4), pages 757-83, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Joseph F. Quinn, 1999. "Has the Early Retirement Trend Reversed?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 424, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2002. "Retirement and the Stock Market Bubble," NBER Working Papers 9404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas Steinmeier, 2007. "Projecting Behavioral Responses to the Next Generation of Retirement Policies," NBER Working Papers 12958, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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