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A Quarterly Macroeconometric Model of the Turkish Economy

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  • Cem Aysoy
  • Ahmet N. Kipici
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    Abstract

    This paper aims at describing a small-scale quarterly model for the Turkish economy. It differs from previous work in two respects; (i) the explicit treatment of the expectations in the inflationary process; (ii) the effect of public borrowing on inflation via interest rates. We conclude that expectations have the greatest importance in the determination of inflation along with the exchange rate in Turkey. In addition, to use the overnight interest rate as an effective policy tool, it seems to be essential to accomplish the structural reforms so as to eliminate risk premium due to the concerns about the debt sustainability.

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    File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/research/cbreview/july05-2.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its journal Central Bank Review.

    Volume (Year): 5 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 39-71

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    Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:5:y:2005:i:2:p:39-71

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    Related research

    Keywords: Econometric Modeling; Financing Public Borrowing; Expectations;

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    1. Ozatay, Fatih, 2000. "A quarterly macroeconometric model for a highly inflationary and indebted country: Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-11, January.
    2. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
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