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Maturity mismatch and financial crises: evidence from emerging market corporations

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  • Hoyt Bleakley
  • Kevin Cowan

Abstract

Substantial attention has been paid in recent years to the risk of maturity mismatch in emerging markets. Although this risk is microeconomic in nature, the evidence advanced thus far has taken the form of macro correlations. We evaluate this mechanism empirically at the micro level by using a database of over 3000 publicly traded firms from fifteen emerging markets. We measure the risk of short-term exposure by estimating, at the firm level, the effect on investment of the interaction of short-term exposure and aggregate capital flows. This effect is (statistically) zero, contrary to the prediction of the maturity-mismatch hypothesis. This conclusion is robust to using a variety of different estimators, alternative measures of capital flows, and controls for devaluation effects and access to international capital. We do find evidence that short-term exposed firms pay higher financing costs and liquidate assets at “fire sale” prices, but not that this reduction in net worth translates into a drop in investment.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): ()
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2005:x:20

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References

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  1. Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2005. "Maturity Mismatch and Financial Crises: Evidence from Emerging Market Corporations," Research Department Publications 4433, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  2. James J. Heckman & Sergio Urzua & Edward J. Vytlacil, 2006. "Understanding Instrumental Variables in Models with Essential Heterogeneity," NBER Working Papers 12574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2000. "Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14, pages 11-78 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Dani Rodrik & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Short-Term Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Francisco Gallego & Norman Loayza, 2000. "Financial Structure in Chile: Macroeconomic Developments and Microeconomic Effects," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 75, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2002. "Corporate dollar debt and depreciations: much ado about nothing?," Working Papers 02-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  7. Johnson, Simon & Boone, Peter & Breach, Alasdair & Friedman, Eric, 2000. "Corporate governance in the Asian financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 141-186.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mehtap Kesriyeli & Erdal Ozmen & Serkan Yigit, 2005. "Corporate Sector Debt Composition and Exchange Rate Balance Sheet Effect in Turkey," Working Papers 0516, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  2. Rudiger Ahrend & Antoine Goujard, 2012. "International Capital Mobility and Financial Fragility - Part 1. Drivers of Systemic Banking Crises: The Role of Bank-Balance-Sheet Contagion and Financial Account Structure," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 902, OECD Publishing.
  3. Rataporn Deesomsak & Krishna Paudyal & Gioia Pescetto, 2007. "Debt Maturity Structure and the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2007_01, Durham University Business School.
  4. Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2005. "Maturity mismatch and financial crises: evidence from emerging market corporations," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Halil Ibrahim Aydin & Cafer Kaplan & Mehtap Kesriyeli & Erdal Ozmen & Cihan Yalcin & Serkan Yigit, 2006. "Corporate Sector Financial Structure in Turkey : A Descriptive Analysis," Working Papers 0607, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  6. Luis Opazo & Claudio Raddatz & Sergio L Schmukler, 2010. "The Long and the Short of Emerging Market Debt," Working Papers 42, Superintendencia de Pensiones, revised Jun 2010.
  7. Luis Carranza & José Enrique Galdón Sánchez & Javier Gómez Biscarri, . "The relationship between investment and large exchange rate depreciations in dollarized economies," Faculty Working Papers 01/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  8. Ayyagari, Meghana & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2011. "Do Phoenix miracles exist ? firm-level evidence from financial crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5799, The World Bank.
  9. Hanan Morsy & Maria Pia Iannariello & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2007. "Role of Debt Maturity Structureon Firm Fixed Assets During Sudden Stop Episodes," IMF Working Papers 07/11, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Andrew T. Young & Travis Wiseman & Thomas L. Hogan, 2010. "Changing Perceptions of Maturity Mismatch in the US Banking System: Evidence from Equity Markets," Working Papers 10-04, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
  11. Kearney, Colm, 2012. "Emerging markets research: Trends, issues and future directions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 159-183.
  12. Uluc Aysun, 2006. "Capital Flows, Maturity Mismatches and Profitability in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Bank Level Data," Working papers 2006-29, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2007.

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