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Maturity Mismatch and Financial Crises: Evidence from Emerging Market Corporations

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  • Hoyt Bleakley
  • Kevin Cowan

Abstract

Substantial attention has been paid in recent years to the risk of maturity mismatch in emerging markets. Although this risk is microeconomic in nature, the evidence advanced thus far has taken the form of macro correlations. This paper empirically evaluates this mechanism at the micro level by using a database of over 3,000 publicly traded firms from fifteen emerging markets. The paper measures the risk of short-term exposure by estimating, at the firm level, the effect on investment of the interaction of short-term exposure and aggregate capital flows. This effect is (statistically) zero, contrary to the prediction of the maturity-mismatch hypothesis. This conclusion is robust to using a variety of different estimators, alternative measures of capital flows, and controls for devaluation effects and access to international capital. The paper finds evidence that short-term-exposed firms pay higher financing costs and liquidate assets at fire sale prices, but the paper does not find that this reduction in net worth translates into a drop in investment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4433.

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Date of creation: Jul 2005
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4433

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  1. James J. Heckman & Sergio Urzua & Edward J. Vytlacil, 2006. "Understanding Instrumental Variables in Models with Essential Heterogeneity," NBER Working Papers 12574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Bleakley, Hoyt & Cowan, Kevin, 2010. "Maturity mismatch and financial crises: Evidence from emerging market corporations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 189-205, November.
  3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejia, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 10520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2005. "Corporate Dollar Debt and Depreciations: Much Ado About Nothing?," Research Department Publications, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department 4411, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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  19. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2005. "Maturity mismatch and financial crises: evidence from emerging market corporations," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Andrew T. Young & Travis Wiseman & Thomas L. Hogan, 2010. "Changing Perceptions of Maturity Mismatch in the US Banking System: Evidence from Equity Markets," Working Papers 10-04, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
  3. Rataporn Deesomsak & Krishna Paudyal & Gioia Pescetto, 2007. "Debt Maturity Structure and the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2007_01, Durham University Business School.
  4. Opazo, Luis & Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2009. "The long and the short of emerging market debt," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5056, The World Bank.
  5. Mehtap Kesriyeli & Erdal Ozmen & Serkan Yigit, 2005. "Corporate Sector Debt Composition and Exchange Rate Balance Sheet Effect in Turkey," ERC Working Papers 0507, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Nov 2005.
  6. Hanan Morsy & Maria Pia Iannariello & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2007. "Role of Debt Maturity Structureon Firm Fixed Assets During Sudden Stop Episodes," IMF Working Papers 07/11, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Carranza, Luis & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose E. & Gomez-Biscarri, Javier, 2011. "The relationship between investment and large exchange rate depreciations in dollarized economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1265-1279.
  8. Kearney, Colm, 2012. "Emerging markets research: Trends, issues and future directions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 159-183.
  9. Halil Ibrahim Aydin & Cafer Kaplan & Mehtap Kesriyeli & Erdal Ozmen & Cihan Yalcin & Serkan Yigit, 2006. "Corporate Sector Financial Structure in Turkey : A Descriptive Analysis," Working Papers 0607, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  10. Uluc Aysun, 2006. "Capital Flows, Maturity Mismatches and Profitability in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Bank Level Data," Working papers, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics 2006-29, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2007.
  11. Ayyagari, Meghana & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2011. "Do Phoenix miracles exist ? firm-level evidence from financial crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5799, The World Bank.
  12. Rudiger Ahrend & Antoine Goujard, 2012. "International Capital Mobility and Financial Fragility - Part 1. Drivers of Systemic Banking Crises: The Role of Bank-Balance-Sheet Contagion and Financial Account Structure," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 902, OECD Publishing.

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