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A novel auto-regressive fractionally integrated moving average--least-squares support vector machine model for electricity spot prices prediction

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  • Najeh Chaâbane

Abstract

In the framework of competitive electricity market, prices forecasting has become a real challenge for all market participants. However, forecasting is a rather complex task since electricity prices involve many features comparably with those in financial markets. Electricity markets are more unpredictable than other commodities referred to as extreme volatile. Therefore, the choice of the forecasting model has become even more important. In this paper, a new hybrid model is proposed. This model exploits the feature and strength of the auto-regressive fractionally integrated moving average model as well as least-squares support vector machine model. The expected prediction combination takes advantage of each model's strength or unique capability. The proposed model is examined by using data from the Nordpool electricity market. Empirical results showed that the proposed method has the best prediction accuracy compared to other methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Najeh Chaâbane, 2014. "A novel auto-regressive fractionally integrated moving average--least-squares support vector machine model for electricity spot prices prediction," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 635-651, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:41:y:2014:i:3:p:635-651
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2013.847068
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    1. Haldrup, Niels & Nielsen, Morten Orregaard, 2006. "A regime switching long memory model for electricity prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 349-376.
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    3. Pai, Ping-Feng & Lin, Chih-Sheng, 2005. "A hybrid ARIMA and support vector machines model in stock price forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 497-505, December.
    4. Haldrup Niels & Nielsen Morten Ø., 2006. "Directional Congestion and Regime Switching in a Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-24, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiang, Ping & Nie, Ying & Wang, Jianzhou & Huang, Xiaojia, 2023. "Multivariable short-term electricity price forecasting using artificial intelligence and multi-input multi-output scheme," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Hongyue Guo & Xiaodong Liu & Zhubin Sun, 2016. "Multivariate time series prediction using a hybridization of VARMA models and Bayesian networks," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(16), pages 2897-2909, December.
    3. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.

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