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Stylized facts on nominal term structure and business cycles: an empirical VAR study

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Tao Wu

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Abstract

This paper examines the importance of various macroeconomic shocks in explaining the movement of the term structure of nominal bond yields in the post-war USA, as well as the channels through which such macro-shocks influence the yield curve, using a structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The results show that the monetary-policy and the aggregate-supply shocks are important determinants of the nominal term structure. Moreover, the monetary-policy innovations have a large but transitory effect on the nominal bond yields, primarily by changing the slope of the yield curve, and the aggregate-supply shocks from private sector have a more persistent effect on the level of the yield curve, but have little effect on the slope of the yield curve.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 35 (2003)
Issue (Month): 8 (January)
Pages: 901-906
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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:8:p:901-906

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 1998. "Monetary policy and the term structure of nominal interest rates: Evidence and theory," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 53-111, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Tao Wu, 2001. "Macro factors and the affine term structure of interest rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Tao Wu, 2001. "Monetary policy and the slope factor in empirical term structure estimations," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  4. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1996-2), pages 1-78. [Downloadable!]
  5. Knez, Peter J & Litterman, Robert & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1994. " Explorations into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1861-82, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Tao Wu, 2001. "Macro factors and the affine term structure of interest rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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