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Stylized facts on nominal term structure and business cycles: an empirical VAR study

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  • Tao Wu
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Abstract

This paper examines the importance of various macroeconomic shocks in explaining the movement of the term structure of nominal bond yields in the post-war USA, as well as the channels through which such macro-shocks influence the yield curve, using a structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The results show that the monetary-policy and the aggregate-supply shocks are important determinants of the nominal term structure. Moreover, the monetary-policy innovations have a large but transitory effect on the nominal bond yields, primarily by changing the slope of the yield curve, and the aggregate-supply shocks from private sector have a more persistent effect on the level of the yield curve, but have little effect on the slope of the yield curve.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 35 (2003)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 901-906

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:8:p:901-906

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  1. Charles L. Evans & David A. Marshall, 1997. "Monetary policy and the term structure of nominal interest rates: evidence and theory," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Knez, Peter J & Litterman, Robert & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1994. " Explorations into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1861-82, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2012. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers IES 2012/27, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2012.
  2. Marco Matsumura & Ajax Moreira, 2011. "Assessing macro influence on Brazilian yield curve with affine models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(15), pages 1847-1863.
  3. Tao Wu, 2001. "Macro factors and the affine term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series 2002-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Lange, Ronald H., 2013. "The Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve: A dynamic latent factor approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 261-274.
  5. Aranha, Marcel Z. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2009. "The impact of monetary policy on the yield curve in the Brazilian economy," Insper Working Papers wpe_167, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.

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