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Monetary Transmission and the Yield Curve in a Small Open Economy

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  • Mariano Kulish

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Daniel Rees

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

Long-term nominal interest rates in a number of inflation-targeting small open economies have tended to be highly correlated with those of the United States. This observation has recently lent support to the view that the long end of the yield curve is determined abroad. We set up and estimate a micro-founded two-block small open economy model to study the co-movement of long-term nominal interest rates of different currencies. The expectations hypothesis together with uncovered interest rate parity, which both hold in our model, can account for much of the co-movement of interest rates observed in the data.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp2008-03.

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Date of creation: Jun 2008
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Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2008-03

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Related research

Keywords: term structure of interest rates; yield curve; small open economy; DSGE model; transmission mechanism;

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References

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  1. Jordi Gal� & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
  2. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2005. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 11340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. David Backus & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Cracking the conundrum," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
  6. Peter N. Ireland, 2004. "Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," NBER Working Papers 10309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Kristoffer P. Nimark, 2009. "A Structural Model of Australia as a Small Open Economy," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 42(1), pages 24-41, 03.
  8. David K. Backus, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, 02.
  9. Justiniano, Alejandro & Preston, Bruce, 2010. "Can structural small open-economy models account for the influence of foreign disturbances?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 61-74, May.
  10. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary policy alternatives at the zero bound: an empirical assessment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Knez, Peter J & Litterman, Robert & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1994. " Explorations into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1861-82, December.
  12. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "A Bayesian Look at the New Open Economy Macroeconomics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 313-382 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Kuttner, Ken & Robinson, Tim, 2010. "Understanding the flattening Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 110-125, August.
  2. Mark J. Holmes & Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates, the Expectations Hypothesis and International Financial Integration: Evidence from Asian Economies," Working Paper Series 34_10, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  3. David M. Williams, 2010. "Consumption, wealth and credit liberalisation in Australia," Economics Series Working Papers 492, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

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