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Exploring the duration of EU imports

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  • Wolfgang Hess
  • Maria Persson

    ()

Abstract

The objective of this paper is twofold. First, against the background of an existing empirical literature on the duration of trade which has found that international trade is often of strikingly short duration, we aim to establish whether or not EU imports from the rest of the world also are short-lived. Second, since there is at this point no clear commonly accepted theoretical explanation for these short trade durations, we seek to provide a thorough empirical description and analysis of the phenomenon, with the intention of thereby facilitating theoretical developments on the subject. We employ a rich data set of detailed imports to the EU15 countries from 140 exporters, covering the time period 1962-2006. Using these data, we begin by conducting a thorough descriptive analysis of the duration of EU imports. Thereafter, we perform a regression analysis using discrete-time duration models with proper controls for unobserved heterogeneity. We draw the conclusion that EU imports are indeed very short-lived – in fact, possibly more so than, for example, US imports. The median duration of EU imports is for example merely one year, and almost 60 percent of all spells cease during the first year of service. Among our empirical findings are (i) that the duration of trade remains stable across the long time period that we study; (ii) that short trade durations are the result of at least two processes: countries shifting between different suppliers but continuing to import a given product, and countries ceasing to import the product altogether; and (iii) that countries with a diversified export structure also will tend to have more long-lived export flows. In our formal regression, we are also able to find a set of explanatory variables that have statistically significant effects on the probability that trade flows die.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Review of World Economics.

Volume (Year): 147 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 665-692

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Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:147:y:2011:i:4:p:665-692

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Related research

Keywords: Duration of trade; Survival; European Union; Discrete-time hazard models; C41; F10; F14;

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References

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  1. Cadot, Olivier & Iacovone, Leonardo & Pierola, Martha Denisse & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2013. "Success and failure of African exporters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 284-296.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. MAYNERIS, Florian & PONCET, Sandra, 2011. "Entry on difficult export markets by Chinese domestic firms: the role of foreign export spillovers," CORE Discussion Papers 2011063, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. Békés, Gábor & Muraközy, Balázs, 2012. "Temporary trade and heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 232-246.
  3. Fernandes, Ana M. & Paunov, Caroline, 2012. "The risks of innovation : are innovating firms less likely to die ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6103, The World Bank.
  4. Hess , Wolfgang & Persson, Maria, 2011. "Exploring the Long-Term Evolution of Trade Survival," Working Paper Series 880, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  5. Gullstrand, Joakim & Persson, Maria, 2012. "How to Combine High Sunk Costs of Exporting and Low Export Survival," Working Papers 2012:32, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  6. Marco Fugazza & Alain McLaren, 2013. "Market Access, Export performance and Survival: Evidence from Peruvian Firms," Research Papers by the Department of Economics, University of Geneva 13021, Département des Sciences Économiques, Université de Genève.
  7. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2012. "An analysis of duration dependence of government revenue expansions and contractions in Developing Countries," Working Papers halshs-00722083, HAL.
  8. Békés, Gábor & Halpern, László & Muraközy, Balázs, 2013. "Külkereskedelem és a vállalatok közötti különbségek
    [Heterogeneous firms and foreign trade]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 1-24.
  9. Stirbat, Liviu & Record, Richard & Nghardsaysone, Konesawang, 2013. "Determinants of export survival in the Lao PDR," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6301, The World Bank.
  10. Mayneris, Florian & Poncet, Sandra, 2013. "Chinese firms'entry to export markets : the role of foreign export spillovers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6398, The World Bank.
  11. Tibor Besedeš, 2011. "The Role of NAFTA and Returns to Scale in Export Duration," CeFiG Working Papers 17, Center for Firms in the Global Economy, revised 01 Dec 2011.
  12. Tibor Besedeš & Thomas J. Prusa, 2013. "Antidumping and the Death of Trade," NBER Working Papers 19555, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Céline CARRERE & Vanessa STRAUSS-KAHN, 2014. "Developing Countries Exports Survival in the OECD: Does Experience Matter?," Working Papers P100, FERDI.
  14. Céline CARRERE & Vanessa STRAUSS-KAHN, 2014. "Developing Countries Exports Survival in the OECD: Does Experience Matter?," Working Papers P100, FERDI.
  15. Rudi, Jeta & Grant, Jason H. & Peterson, Everett B., 2012. "Survival of the Fittest: Explaining Export Duration and Export Failure in the U.S. Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Market," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124706, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  16. Arjan Lejour, 2013. "The duration of Dutch export relations: decomposing firm, country and product characteristics," CPB Discussion Paper 258, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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