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Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Scandinavian Hydropower Production and Energy Markets

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Listed:
  • Jessie Cherry
  • Heidi Cullen
  • Martin Visbeck
  • Arthur Small
  • Cintia Uvo

Abstract

Dramatic swings in the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) during the 1990s motivated the authors to build a statistical model of NAO impacts on hydropower production and energy markets in Scandinavia. Variation in the NAO index is shown to explain 55% of the variance of streamflow in Norway and up to 30% of the variance in Norway's hydropower output. It is also possible to identify the influence of NAO anomalies on electricity consumption and prices. Government liberalization allowed a financial market to grow around the international trading of electricity, which in Norway is produced almost entirely from hydropower. The model offers a possible tool for predicting the effects of future NAO movements on hydropower production and energy prices in Scandinavia. The potential influence of skillful climate prediction is discussed. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Jessie Cherry & Heidi Cullen & Martin Visbeck & Arthur Small & Cintia Uvo, 2005. "Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Scandinavian Hydropower Production and Energy Markets," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 19(6), pages 673-691, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:19:y:2005:i:6:p:673-691
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-005-3279-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johnsen, Tor Arnt, 2001. "Demand, generation and price in the Norwegian market for electric power," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 227-251, May.
    2. S. Corti & F. Molteni & T. N. Palmer, 1999. "Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes," Nature, Nature, vol. 398(6730), pages 799-802, April.
    3. World Bank, 2004. "World Development Indicators 2004," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13890, December.
    4. Drew T. Shindell & Ron L. Miller & Gavin A. Schmidt & Lionel Pandolfo, 1999. "Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing," Nature, Nature, vol. 399(6735), pages 452-455, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Curtis, John & Lynch, Muireann Á. & Zubiate, Laura, 2016. "The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on electricity markets: A case study on Ireland," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 186-198.
    2. Otero-Giráldez, María Soledad & Álvarez-Díaz, Marcos & González-Gómez, Manuel, 2012. "Estimating the long-run effects of socioeconomic and meteorological factors on the domestic tourism demand for Galicia (Spain)," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1301-1308.
    3. François, B., 2016. "Influence of winter North-Atlantic Oscillation on Climate-Related-Energy penetration in Europe," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 602-613.
    4. Baptiste François & Sara Martino & Lena S. Tøfte & Benoit Hingray & Birger Mo & Jean-Dominique Creutin, 2017. "Effects of Increased Wind Power Generation on Mid-Norway’s Energy Balance under Climate Change: A Market Based Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18, February.
    5. Ioannis Niadas & Panos Mentzelopoulos, 2008. "Probabilistic Flow Duration Curves for Small Hydro Plant Design and Performance Evaluation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(4), pages 509-523, April.
    6. Luigia Brandimarte & Giuliano Baldassarre & Guendalina Bruni & Paolo D’Odorico & Alberto Montanari, 2011. "Relation Between the North-Atlantic Oscillation and Hydroclimatic Conditions in Mediterranean Areas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(5), pages 1269-1279, March.
    7. Victoria V. Perskaya, 2020. "The Comparison of the Energy Markets of the EAEU and the Scandinavian Countries: Best Practices for the Energy Integration," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 81-88.
    8. Ely, Caroline R. & Brayshaw, David J. & Methven, John & Cox, James & Pearce, Oliver, 2013. "Implications of the North Atlantic Oscillation for a UK–Norway Renewable power system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1420-1427.

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