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A simple earth system model for C3IAM: based on BCC_CSM1.1 and CMIP5 simulations

Author

Listed:
  • Changyi Liu

    (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration
    Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization)

  • Xueli Shi

    (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration)

  • Guoquan Hu

    (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration)

  • Qiufeng Liu

    (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration)

  • Yunwei Dai

    (China Meteorological Administration)

  • Wenyan Zhou

    (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration)

  • Chao Wei

    (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration)

  • Yunfei Cao

    (Beijing Institute of Technology)

Abstract

Traditional complex climate system models used in natural sciences cannot match the integrated assessment models well due to differences in temporal and spatial resolutions and especially computational complexities. In this study, we develop a simple earth system model called Beijing Climate Center Simple Earth System Model (BCC_SESM), which is based on the complex BCC_CSM1.1 model and its CMIP5 simulation results as inputs. The basic and complete processes are considered in the BCC_SESM initiating from the carbon emission, including the carbon cycle processes in atmosphere–land–ocean, the radiation forcing and temperature changes. The emission-driven simulation results for historical and RCP8.5 scenarios are selected as the default datasets, and econometric regressions are applied to calibrate the parameters. Projection analysis and sensitive experiments with the BCC_SESM show that this model is parsimonious and robust enough to reproduce results of original complex climate system model. We also compare results of parameters and projection efficacy of different mid-lower emission scenarios simulations by applying this BCC_SESM. The results show that BCC_SESM is suitable for climate projections in the integrated assessment modeling, i.e., the C3IAM.

Suggested Citation

  • Changyi Liu & Xueli Shi & Guoquan Hu & Qiufeng Liu & Yunwei Dai & Wenyan Zhou & Chao Wei & Yunfei Cao, 2019. "A simple earth system model for C3IAM: based on BCC_CSM1.1 and CMIP5 simulations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(3), pages 1311-1325, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:99:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03640-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03640-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matsuoka, Yuzuru & Kainuma, Mikiko & Morita, Tsuneyuki, 1995. "Scenario analysis of global warming using the Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4-5), pages 357-371.
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    Keywords

    Climate model; IAM; BCC_CSM1.1; CMIP5; BCC_SESM;
    All these keywords.

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