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Understanding Macro and Asset Price Dynamics During the Climate Transition

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Donadelli

    (University of Brescia, Research Center SAFE)

  • Patrick Grüning

    (Bank of Lithuania, Vilnius University)

  • Steffen Hitzemann

    (Rutgers Business School)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the transition to a low-carbon economy and its effects on macroeconomic quantities and asset prices. Empirically, we document that the relative valuation of fossil fuel firms has significantly declined with the rise of climate change risk awareness. We develop a macro asset pricing model for the climate transition that matches this empirical fact and allows us to characterize the dynamics of macroeconomic aggregates and asset prices during and after the transition. In particular, we analyze (i) firm valuation dynamics, (ii) climate policy risk premia, (iii) capital reallocation between sectors, and (iv) the behavior of oil prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Donadelli & Patrick Grüning & Steffen Hitzemann, 2019. "Understanding Macro and Asset Price Dynamics During the Climate Transition," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 18, Bank of Lithuania.
    • Handle: RePEc:lie:dpaper:18
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Diluiso, Francesca & Annicchiarico, Barbara & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Minx, Jan C., 2021. "Climate actions and macro-financial stability: The role of central banks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    2. Martin Motl & Jaromir Tonner, 2021. "Modelling the impacts of climate change on the global economy: Stagflationary shock looming," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - September 2021, pages 13-22, Czech National Bank.
    3. Borghesi, S. & Castellini, M. & Comincioli, N. & Donadelli, M. & Gufler, I. & Vergalli, S., 2022. "European green policy announcements and sectoral stock returns," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    4. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    5. Francesca Diluiso & Barbara Annicchiarico & Matthias Kalkuhl & Jan C. Minx, 2020. "Climate Actions and Stranded Assets: The Role of Financial Regulation and Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 8486, CESifo.
    6. Louis Daumas, 2021. "Should we fear transition risks - A review of the applied literature," Working Papers 2021.05, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    7. Fabio Pizzutilo & Massimo Mariani & Alessandra Caragnano & Marianna Zito, 2020. "Dealing with Carbon Risk and the Cost of Debt: Evidence from the European Market," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-10, October.
    8. Cheng, Ruijie & Gupta, Bhavya & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2023. "Do green financial policies offset the climate transition risk penalty imposed on long-term sovereign bond yields?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Policy risk; General equilibrium; Risk premia; Oil market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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