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Optimal Oil Exploration under Climate Treaties

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Author Info
Elin Berg, Snorre Kverndokk and Knut Einar Rosendahl () (Statistics Norway)

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Abstract

In this paper we focus on how an international climate treaty will influence the exploration of oil in Non-OPEC countries. We present a numerical intertemporal global equilibrium model for the fossil fuel markets. The international oil market is modelled with a cartel (OPEC) and a competitive fringe on the supply side, following a Nash-Cournot approach. An initial resource base for oil is given in the Non-OPEC region. However, the resource base changes over time due to depletion, exploration and discovery. When studying the effects of different climate treaties on oil exploration, two contrasting incentives apply. If an international carbon tax is introduced, the producer price of oil will drop compared to the reference case. This gives an incentive to reduce oil production and exploration. However, the oil price may increase less rapidly over time, which gives an incentive to expedite production, and exploration. In fact, in the case of a rising carbon tax we find the last incentive to be the strongest, which means that an international climate treaty may increase oil exploration in Non-OPEC countries for the coming decades.

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Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 245.

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Date of creation: Jan 1999
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Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:245

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Related research
Keywords: International Climate Treaties; Exhaustible Resources; Optimal Oil Exploration;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Tahvonen, Olli, 1996. "Trade with Polluting Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-17, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Elin Berg, Snorre Kverndokk and Knut EinarRosendahl, 1996. "Gains from Cartelisation in the Oil Market," Discussion Papers 181, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Geoffrey Heal, 1976. "The Relationship Between Price and Extraction Cost for a Resource with a Backstop Technology," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 371-378, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Swierzbinski, Joseph E & Mendelsohn, Robert, 1989. "Exploration and Exhaustible Resources: The Microfoundations of Aggregate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(1), pages 175-86, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Elin Berg, Snorre Kverndokk and Knut Einar Rosendahl, 1996. "Market Power, International CO2 Taxation and Petroleum Wealth," Discussion Papers 170, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  6. Cairns, Robert D. & Van Quyen, Nguyen, 1998. "Optimal Exploration for and Exploitation of Heterogeneous Mineral Deposits," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 164-189, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Manne, Alan & Mendelsohn, Robert & Richels, Richard, 1995. "MERGE : A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-34, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Fisher, Anthony C, 1982. "Exploration and Scarcity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1279-90, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Pindyck, Robert S, 1978. "The Optimal Exploration and Production of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 841-61, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Hoel, Michael & Kverndokk, Snorre, 1996. "Depletion of fossil fuels and the impacts of global warming," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 115-136, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Arrow, Kenneth J. & Chang, Sheldon, 1982. "Optimal pricing, use, and exploration of uncertain natural resource stocks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Robert M. Solow & Frederic Y. Wan, 1976. "Extraction Costs in the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 359-370, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Wirl Franz, 1994. "Pigouvian Taxation of Energy for Flow and Stock Externalities and Strategic, Noncompetitive Energy Pricing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-18, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Salant, Stephen W, 1976. "Exhaustible Resources and Industrial Structure: A Nash-Cournot Approach to the World Oil Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(5), pages 1079-93, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Ulph, Alistair & Ulph, David, 1994. "The Optimal Time Path of a Carbon Tax," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(0), pages 857-68, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Rolf Golombek & Eystein Gjelsvik & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 1995. "Effects of Liberalizing the Natural Gas Markets in Western Europe," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 85-112.
  17. Livernois, John R & Uhler, Russell S, 1987. "Extraction Costs and the Economics of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 195-203, February.
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