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Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions

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  • Salvador E. Puliafito
  • José L. Puliafito
  • Mariana Conte Grand

Abstract

Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing-species as in Lokta-Volterra prey-predator relations. The predator–prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Salvador E. Puliafito & José L. Puliafito & Mariana Conte Grand, 2006. "Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 334, Universidad del CEMA.
  • Handle: RePEc:cem:doctra:334
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Qi, Wei & Li, Guangdong, 2020. "Residential carbon emission embedded in China's inter-provincial population migration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    4. Lili Li & Yiwu Zeng & Yanmei He & Qiuxia Qin & Jianhao Wang & Changluan Fu, 2022. "Developing Village-Based Green Economy in an Endogenous Way: A Case Study from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-22, June.
    5. Tsai, Bi-Huei & Chang, Chih-Jen & Chang, Chun-Hsien, 2016. "Elucidating the consumption and CO2 emissions of fossil fuels and low-carbon energy in the United States using Lotka–Volterra models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 416-424.
    6. Samar Khairy Ghanem, 2018. "The relationship between population and the environment and its impact on sustainable development in Egypt using a multi-equation model," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 305-342, February.
    7. Navarro, Andres & Tapiador, Francisco J., 2019. "RUSEM: A numerical model for policymaking and climate applications," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Boris M. Dolgonosov, 2018. "A Conceptual Model of the Relationship Among World Economy and Climate Indicators," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15, March.
    9. Yi Zhang & Guangqiu Huang, 2023. "Identifying network structure characteristics and key factors for the co-evolution between high-quality industrial development and ecological environment," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 6591-6625, July.
    10. Tomás R. Bolaño-Ortiz & S. Enrique Puliafito & Lucas L. Berná-Peña & Romina M. Pascual-Flores & Josefina Urquiza & Yiniva Camargo-Caicedo, 2020. "Atmospheric Emission Changes and Their Economic Impacts during the COVID-19 Pandemic Lockdown in Argentina," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-29, October.
    11. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Chen, Haipeng (Allan) & Li, Yi-Ying, 2015. "Competitive dynamics of energy, environment, and economy in the U.S," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 449-460.
    12. Chun Chih Chen, 2021. "The path to a 2025 nuclear-free Taiwan: An analysis of dynamic competition among emissions, energy, and economy," Energy & Environment, , vol. 32(4), pages 668-689, June.
    13. PU, Zhengning & FEI, Jinhua, 2022. "The impact of digital finance on residential carbon emissions: Evidence from China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 515-527.

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    Keywords

    Population dynamics; economic growth; primary energy consumption; carbon emission model; Lokta-Volterra Equations; Prey-predator model.;
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