IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jqecon/v16y2018i2d10.1007_s40953-017-0085-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling and Forecasting Unbiased Extreme Value Volatility Estimator in Presence of Leverage Effect

Author

Listed:
  • Dilip Kumar

    (Indian Institute of Management Kashipur)

Abstract

This study proposes the frameworks (A-HAR-AddRS and HAR-AddRS-AGARCH) to account for leverage effect in modeling and forecasting the AddRS estimator (Kumar and Maheswaran, Econ Model 38:33–44, 2014b) based on heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model. We evaluate the forecasting performance of the A-HAR-AddRS and HAR-AddRS-AGARCH models using the error statistic approach, the superior predictive ability (SPA) approach and the model confidence set (MCS) approach and compare the results with the corresponding results from the return based asymmetric and regime switching volatility models. To illustrate it, we use the same indices as used by Kumar and Maheswaran (Int Rev Financ Anal 34:166–176, 2014a, Econ Model 38:33–44, 2014b), that is, S&P 500, CAC 40, IBOVESPA and S&P CNX Nifty. Our findings indicate that the A-HAR-AddRS and HAR-AddRS-AGARCH models provide more accurate forecasts of realized volatility than the returns based asymmetric and regime switching volatility models.

Suggested Citation

  • Dilip Kumar, 2018. "Modeling and Forecasting Unbiased Extreme Value Volatility Estimator in Presence of Leverage Effect," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(2), pages 313-335, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jqecon:v:16:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s40953-017-0085-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s40953-017-0085-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40953-017-0085-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40953-017-0085-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kumar, Dilip & Maheswaran, S., 2014. "A reflection principle for a random walk with implications for volatility estimation using extreme values of asset prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 33-44.
    2. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
    3. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    4. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
    5. Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2005. "A Test for Superior Predictive Ability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 365-380, October.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996. "Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
    7. Enrique Ter Horst & Abel Rodriguez & Henryk Gzyl & German Molina, 2012. "Stochastic volatility models including open, close, high and low prices," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 199-212, May.
    8. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
    9. Turan G. Bali & David Weinbaum, 2005. "A comparative study of alternative extreme‐value volatility estimators," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(9), pages 873-892, September.
    10. Peter R. Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2011. "The Model Confidence Set," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(2), pages 453-497, March.
    11. Fulvio Corsi, 2009. "A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 174-196, Spring.
    12. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 77-102.
    13. Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
    14. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    15. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    16. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    17. Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January.
    18. Ball, Clifford A & Torous, Walter N, 1984. "The Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Security Price Volatility: Theory, Evidence, and Application to Option Pricing," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 97-112, January.
    19. Brandt, Michael W. & Jones, Christopher S., 2006. "Volatility Forecasting With Range-Based EGARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 470-486, October.
    20. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
    21. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Lange, Steve, 1999. "Forecasting financial market volatility: Sample frequency vis-a-vis forecast horizon," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(5), pages 457-477, December.
    22. Sassan Alizadeh & Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Range‐Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1047-1091, June.
    23. Kunitomo, Naoto, 1992. "Improving the Parkinson Method of Estimating Security Price Volatilities," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 295-302, April.
    24. Maheswaran, S. & Kumar, Dilip, 2013. "An automatic bias correction procedure for volatility estimation using extreme values of asset prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 701-712.
    25. Malik Magdon-Ismail & Amir Atiya, 2003. "A maximum likelihood approach to volatility estimation for a Brownian motion using high, low and close price data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(5), pages 376-384.
    26. Chou, Ray Yeutien, 2005. "Forecasting Financial Volatilities with Extreme Values: The Conditional Autoregressive Range (CARR) Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 561-582, June.
    27. Y. K. Tse, 1998. "The conditional heteroscedasticity of the yen-dollar exchange rate," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 49-55.
    28. Kumar, Dilip & Maheswaran, S., 2014. "Modeling and forecasting the additive bias corrected extreme value volatility estimator," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 166-176.
    29. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kumar, Dilip & Maheswaran, S., 2014. "Modeling and forecasting the additive bias corrected extreme value volatility estimator," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 166-176.
    2. Dilip Kumar, 2016. "Estimating and forecasting value-at-risk using the unbiased extreme value volatility estimator," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 3205528, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    3. Dilip Kumar, 2020. "Value-at-Risk in the Presence of Structural Breaks Using Unbiased Extreme Value Volatility Estimator," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(3), pages 587-610, September.
    4. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    6. Marcin Fałdziński & Piotr Fiszeder & Witold Orzeszko, 2020. "Forecasting Volatility of Energy Commodities: Comparison of GARCH Models with Support Vector Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-18, December.
    7. Kumar, Dilip & Maheswaran, S., 2014. "A new approach to model and forecast volatility based on extreme value of asset prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 128-140.
    8. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    9. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    10. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "A Survey on Volatility Fluctuations in the Decentralized Cryptocurrency Financial Assets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-46, June.
    11. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Xanthopoulos-Sisinis, Spyros & Refenes, Apostolos P., 2011. "Are realized volatility models good candidates for alternative Value at Risk prediction strategies?," MPRA Paper 30364, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Zargar, Faisal Nazir & Kumar, Dilip, 2020. "Heterogeneous market hypothesis approach for modeling unbiased extreme value volatility estimator in presence of leverage effect: An individual stock level study with economic significance analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 271-285.
    13. Henning Fischer & Ángela Blanco‐FERNÁndez & Peter Winker, 2016. "Predicting Stock Return Volatility: Can We Benefit from Regression Models for Return Intervals?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(2), pages 113-146, March.
    14. Ma, Feng & Li, Yu & Liu, Li & Zhang, Yaojie, 2018. "Are low-frequency data really uninformative? A forecasting combination perspective," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 92-108.
    15. Richard D. F. Harris & Murat Mazibas, 2022. "A component Markov regime‐switching autoregressive conditional range model," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 650-683, April.
    16. David McMillan & Raquel Quiroga Garcia, 2009. "Intra-day volatility forecasts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(8), pages 611-623.
    17. Lakshmi Padmakumari & S Maheswaran, 2016. "A Regression Based Approach to Capturing the Level Dependence in the Volatility of Stock Returns," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(12), pages 706-718, December.
    18. Muneer Shaik & S. Maheswaran, 2019. "Robust Volatility Estimation with and Without the Drift Parameter," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(1), pages 57-91, March.
    19. Ma, Feng & Wei, Yu & Huang, Dengshi & Chen, Yixiang, 2014. "Which is the better forecasting model? A comparison between HAR-RV and multifractality volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 171-180.
    20. Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter & Výrost, Tomáš, 2021. "Stock market volatility forecasting: Do we need high-frequency data?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1092-1110.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility modeling; Leverage effect; Volatility forecasting; Forecast evaluation; Bias corrected extreme value estimator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jqecon:v:16:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s40953-017-0085-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.