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Modeling and forecasting the additive bias corrected extreme value volatility estimator

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  • Kumar, Dilip
  • Maheswaran, S.

Abstract

In this paper, we provide a framework to model and forecast daily volatility based on the newly proposed additive bias corrected extreme value volatility estimator (the Add RS estimator). The theoretical framework of the additive bias corrected extreme value volatility estimator is based on the closed form solution for the joint probability of the running maximum and the terminal value of the random walk. Using the opening, high, low and closing prices of S&P 500, CAC 40, IBOVESPA and S&P CNX Nifty indices, we find that the logarithm of the Add RS estimator is approximately Gaussian and that a simple linear Gaussian long memory model can be applied to forecast the logarithm of the Add RS estimator. The forecast evaluation analysis indicates that the conditional Add RS estimator provides better forecasts of realized volatility than alternative range-based and return-based models.

Suggested Citation

  • Kumar, Dilip & Maheswaran, S., 2014. "Modeling and forecasting the additive bias corrected extreme value volatility estimator," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 166-176.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:34:y:2014:i:c:p:166-176
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2014.06.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Zargar, Faisal Nazir & Kumar, Dilip, 2020. "Modeling unbiased extreme value volatility estimator in presence of heterogeneity and jumps: A study with economic significance analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 25-41.
    2. Parthajit Kayal & G. Balasubramanian, 2021. "Excess Volatility in Bitcoin: Extreme Value Volatility Estimation," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 10(2), pages 222-231, July.
    3. Dilip Kumar, 2020. "Value-at-Risk in the Presence of Structural Breaks Using Unbiased Extreme Value Volatility Estimator," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(3), pages 587-610, September.
    4. Dimitrios I. Vortelinos & Konstantinos Gkillas, 2018. "Intraday realised volatility forecasting and announcements," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 88-118.
    5. Zargar, Faisal Nazir & Kumar, Dilip, 2020. "Heterogeneous market hypothesis approach for modeling unbiased extreme value volatility estimator in presence of leverage effect: An individual stock level study with economic significance analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 271-285.
    6. Dilip Kumar, 2019. "Structural Breaks in Volatility Transmission from Developed Markets to Major Asian Emerging Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 18(2), pages 172-209, August.
    7. Dilip Kumar, 2016. "Estimating and forecasting value-at-risk using the unbiased extreme value volatility estimator," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 3205528, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    8. Dilip Kumar, 2018. "Modeling and Forecasting Unbiased Extreme Value Volatility Estimator in Presence of Leverage Effect," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(2), pages 313-335, June.
    9. Fang, Ming & Chang, Chiu-Lan & Zhang, Qi, 2023. "Impacts of trading restrictions on price volatilities and speculative activities: Evidence from CSI 300 futures," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 184-204.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility modeling; Volatility forecasting; Forecast evaluation; Bias corrected extreme value estimator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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