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Population Decline, Labor Force Stability, and the Future of the Japanese Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Robert L. Clark

    (North Carolina State University)

  • Naohiro Ogawa

    (Nihon University Population Research Institute)

  • Makoto Kondo

    (Kobe Gakuin University)

  • Rikiya Matsukura

    (Nihon University Population Research Institute)

Abstract

Demographic trends in Japan are producing a declining population that is rapidly growing older. With a total fertility rate of around 1.3 children per woman, the population has already begun to decline. This article examines the impact of these demographic trends on the level of employment and economic growth that Japan is projected to experience over the next 20 years. We explore the effect of changes in labor market policies on age-specific employment rates and assess whether innovative policies can moderate the decline in employment. Public policies encouraging increased employment of women and persons aged 60 and older could partially offset the anticipated decline in employment. The importance of the Japanese experience for European policy makers is discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert L. Clark & Naohiro Ogawa & Makoto Kondo & Rikiya Matsukura, 2010. "Population Decline, Labor Force Stability, and the Future of the Japanese Economy," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 207-227, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:26:y:2010:i:2:d:10.1007_s10680-009-9179-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-009-9179-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Chapters, in: Paolo Onofri (ed.), The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    6. Rikiya Matsukura & Naohiro Ogawa & Robert Clark, 2007. "Analysis of Employment Patterns and the Changing Demographic Structure of Japan," Japanese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 82-153.
    7. Robert Clark & Naohiro Ogawa & Rikiya Matsukura, 2007. "Population Aging, Changing Retirement Policies and Lifetime Earnings Profiles in Japan," Chapters, in: Robert L. Clark & Naohiro Ogawa & Andrew Mason (ed.), Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Masanori Hashimoto, 1990. "The Japanese Labor Market in a Comparative Perspective with the United States," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number jlm, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mingke Xie & Zhangxian Feng & Chenggu Li, 2022. "How Does Population Shrinkage Affect Economic Resilience? A Case Study of Resource-Based Cities in Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-22, March.
    2. Bloom, David E. & Sousa-Poza, Alfonso, 2010. "Economic consequences of low fertility in Europe," FZID Discussion Papers 11-2010, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
    3. Sadam Hussain & Muhammad Shahid Akram & Abdul Ghaffar & Yasmeen Qamar & Waqar Ahmad, 2019. "Impact of Foreign Investment, Labor Force and Interest Rate on Economic Growth: A Case of Pakistan (Under CPEC Project Contribution Countries)," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(4), pages 369-377, December.
    4. Theodore P. Lianos & Anastasia Pseiridis & Nicholas Tsounis, 2023. "Declining population and GDP growth," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Robert Clark & Melinda Morrill, 2013. "Increasing Work Life: The Role Of The Employer," Discussion Papers 13-016, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    6. Sanae Tashiro & Chu-Ping Lo, 2020. "When Social Norms Influence the Employment of Women: The Case of Japan," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 46(3), pages 460-482, June.
    7. Rob Clark & Rikiya Matsukura & Naohiro Ogawa, 2013. "Low fertility, human capital, and economic growth," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(32), pages 865-884.
    8. Robert Clark & Rikiya Matsukura & Naohiro Ogawa, 2014. "Retirement Transitions In Japan," Discussion Papers 14-013, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    9. Jasmina Barakovic Husic & Francisco José Melero & Sabina Barakovic & Petre Lameski & Eftim Zdravevski & Petra Maresova & Ondrej Krejcar & Ivan Chorbev & Nuno M. Garcia & Vladimir Trajkovik, 2020. "Aging at Work: A Review of Recent Trends and Future Directions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(20), pages 1-15, October.
    10. David E. Bloom & Alfonso Sousa-Poza, 2010. "Introduction to Special Issue of the European Journal of Population: ‘Economic Consequences of Low Fertility in Europe’ [Introduction au numéro spécial de la Revue Européenne de Démographie: ‹ Cons," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 127-139, May.

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