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A spatio-temporal analysis of migration

Author

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  • Alice Milivinti

    (Institut de Démographie et Socioéconimie)

Abstract

Migration is a space- and time-dependent phenomenon. Traditional geographical migration models have considered the distance between source and destination countries or have applied suitable normalizations to treat the correlation among migratory flows. To disentangle cross-sectional dependence, spatial correlation is explored in mainly two directions. First, migratory flows from “neighbouring” countries are considered to be directly interconnected. Second, a set for exogenous drivers are allowed to be correlated among the different economic units. Swiss immigration, from 153 source countries from 1981 to 2011, is modelled using a dynamic spatial econometric model able to capture both path-dependency and spatial interactions. An out-of-sample forecasting, performed to assess the model’s accuracy, confirms the crucial role played by the spatial terms over the dynamic ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Alice Milivinti, 2019. "A spatio-temporal analysis of migration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1411-1442, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:57:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-018-1514-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-018-1514-8
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International migration; Dynamic spatial panel model; Spatial autocorrelation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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