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Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Variability in Southern Africa: The Growing Role of Climate Information

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  • Maxx Dilley

Abstract

Since the devastating southern Africa drought of 1991/92 awareness has grown of the potential to better manage climate variability in the region through seasonal climate forecasting and monitoring of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). While other factors besides ENSO affect southern Africa's climate, and climate forecasting for the region is not based exclusively on ENSO, a major El Niño beginning in 1997 captured the attention of policy-makers and the public. Awareness of drought risks associated with the 1997/98 event was greater than during previous El Niños in 1991/92 and 1994/95. Mitigation and planning efforts also began earlier, with drought early warnings widely available and being taken seriously prior to the 1997/98 agricultural season. Actions taken include issuance of guidance to the public, on-going monitoring and preparedness efforts including the development of national preparedness plans in some countries, pre-positioning of food stocks, donor coordination, and greater reliance on the private-sector for meeting regional food needs. Although 1998 regional crop production was slightly below average, a major drought did not materialize. Nonetheless the experience is likely to ultimately strengthen capacity within the region to manage climate variability over the long term. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

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  • Maxx Dilley, 2000. "Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Variability in Southern Africa: The Growing Role of Climate Information," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 63-73, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:45:y:2000:i:1:p:63-73
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1005636932536
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Benson, C. & Clay, E., 1998. "The Impact of Drought on Sub-Saharan African Economies. A Preliminary Examination," Papers 401, World Bank - Technical Papers.
    2. Charlotte Benson & Edward Clay, 1998. "Drought and Sub-Saharan African Economies," World Bank Publications - Reports 9884, The World Bank Group.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hansen, James W., 2002. "Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 309-330, December.
    2. Jekwu Ikeme, 2003. "Climate Change Daaptational Deficiencies in Developing Countries: the Case of Sub-Saharan Africa," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 29-52, March.
    3. Dorosh, Paul A. & Kennedy, Adam & Torero, Máximo, 2016. "El Niño and cereal production shortfalls: Policies for resilience and food security in 2016 and beyond:," Policy briefs 978-089629-988-7, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Carla Roncoli & Christine Jost & Paul Kirshen & Moussa Sanon & Keith Ingram & Mark Woodin & Léopold Somé & Frédéric Ouattara & Bienvenue Sanfo & Ciriaque Sia & Pascal Yaka & Gerrit Hoogenboom, 2009. "From accessing to assessing forecasts: an end-to-end study of participatory climate forecast dissemination in Burkina Faso (West Africa)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 433-460, February.
    5. Karen O’Brien and Robin Leichenko, 2007. "Human Security, Vulnerability and Sustainable Adaptation," Human Development Occasional Papers (1992-2007) HDOCPA-2007-09, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    6. Osgood, Daniel E. & Suarez, Pablo & Hansen, James & Carriquiry, Miguel & Mishra, Ashok, 2008. "Integrating seasonal forecasts and insurance for adaptation among subsistence farmers : the case of Malawi," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4651, The World Bank.
    7. Aondover Tarhule & Ming-ko Woo, 2002. "Adaptations to the dynamics of rural water supply from natural sources: A village example in semi-arid Nigeria," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 215-237, September.
    8. Carla Roncoli & Benjamin Orlove & Merit Kabugo & Milton Waiswa, 2011. "Cultural styles of participation in farmers’ discussions of seasonal climate forecasts in Uganda," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 28(1), pages 123-138, February.
    9. Sietz, Diana & Boschutz, Maria & Klein, Richard JT & Lotsch, Alexander, 2008. "Mainstreaming climate adaptation into development assistance in Mozambique: Institutional barriers and opportunities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4711, The World Bank.
    10. Robin Leichenko & Karen O'Brien, 2002. "The Dynamics of Rural Vulnerability to Global Change: The Case of southern Africa," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, March.
    11. Gitonga, Zachary M. & Visser, Martine & Mulwa, Chalmers, 2020. "Can climate information salvage livelihoods in arid and semiarid lands? An evaluation of access, use and impact in Namibia," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    12. N. Marshall & I. Gordon & A. Ash, 2011. "The reluctance of resource-users to adopt seasonal climate forecasts to enhance resilience to climate variability on the rangelands," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(3), pages 511-529, August.
    13. Anton Vrieling & Kirsten Beurs & Molly Brown, 2011. "Variability of African farming systems from phenological analysis of NDVI time series," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 455-477, December.

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