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Merging macroeconomic and territorial determinants of regional growth: the MASST4 model

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  • Roberta Capello

    (Politecnico di Milano)

  • Andrea Caragliu

    (Politecnico di Milano)

Abstract

While prior econometric forecasting models focus on either macroeconomic or territorial aspects as drivers of regional growth, the fourth version of the MAcroeconomic, Sectoral, Social, Territorial (MASST4) model merges these two conceptual approaches to regional growth. Mechanisms of territorial complexity governing regional development theories, like agglomeration economies, or structural changes in innovation modes, are included into a formal model so that they simultaneously activate regional growth and mediate macroeconomic growth impacts. Moreover, a longer time series than in previous versions of the MASST model now allows to take account of the structural changes taking place in EU economies as a consequence of the recent crisis. The model now also models the effects of the decrease in EU integration stemming from populistic waves in politics taking place in EU countries. The paper also presents an application of the MASST model to a reference scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberta Capello & Andrea Caragliu, 2021. "Merging macroeconomic and territorial determinants of regional growth: the MASST4 model," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 66(1), pages 19-56, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:66:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s00168-020-01007-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-020-01007-0
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    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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