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Ticari Dışa Açıklık ve Dış Ticaret Hadleri Dış Borçlanma Üzerinde Etkili mi? Türkiye İçin Bir Analiz

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  • Mehmet BÖLÜKBAŞ
  • Osman PEKER

Abstract

In this study the effects of trade openness and terms of trade in Turkey’s external debt are examined by vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis for the period 1998:Q1-2012:Q1. According to the results of variance decomposition, the source of prediction error variance of all variables is mainly from their own shocks. The share of trade openness and terms of trade in the distribution of variance of external debt realized about 9.56% and 9.34% respectively in the thirtieth period. External debt has been influenced by the almost same rate both trade openness and terms of trade which occurs with the effect of this process. The reactions of other variables to a standard-incorrect generalized contractionary effect which occurred in error terms of external debt are analyzed by action reaction function and examined that other variables react contrariwise.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet BÖLÜKBAŞ & Osman PEKER, 2017. "Ticari Dışa Açıklık ve Dış Ticaret Hadleri Dış Borçlanma Üzerinde Etkili mi? Türkiye İçin Bir Analiz," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 25(34).
    • Handle: RePEc:sos:sosjrn:170411
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • P45 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - International Linkages
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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