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Deflation and Deflationary Traps: The Situation in Switzerland

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Author Info
Jean-Marc Natal

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Abstract

In this paper we attempt to identify a set of criteria that an economy has to fulfil to fall into a deflationary trap. We argue that these conditions are not met to a sufficient degree by Switzerland and, accordingly, the risk of falling into such a trap is rather small. If an economy finds itself trapped, however, we suggest that the central bank still has alternative tools to reflate it, even if its policy interest rate has already reached the zero floor (the zero lower bound). In a small open economy, temporarily switching to an exchange rate operating target seems to be the most efficient approach. But other strategies including, as a last resort, collaboration with the fiscal authorities, are also theoretically available.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES) in its journal Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 140 (2004)
Issue (Month): I (March)
Pages: 127-170
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Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2004-i-5

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Related research
Keywords: deflationary trap; monetary policy; Switzerland; Japan;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization

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  7. McCallum, Bennett T, 2000. "Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 870-904, November.
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  11. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(3), pages 535-563, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. James Clouse & Dale Henderson & Athanasios Orphanides & David Small & Peter Tinsley, 2000. "Monetary policy when the nominal short-term interest rate is zero," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  16. Christiano, Lawrence J, 2000. "Comment on Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 905-30, November.
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