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Financial Development and Output: A Synthesis of Time Series Cointegration and Causality Tests for Bangladesh

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  • Anupam Das
  • Syeed Khan

Abstract

Since the 1980s, financial liberalization in developing countries has been an important policy prescription of many international organizations including the World Bank (WB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is argued that the liberalization of the financial sector would allocate productive resources in the most efficient way and increase economic growth. However, the relationship between financial liberalization and output is not clear in the existing empirical literature. Applying the cointegration and Granger causality tests within the vector error correction model (VECM) to a data set from 1974 to 2013, our results suggest that output per capita Granger causes financial development, and vice versa. Hence, we find the evidence of bidirectional causality between financial development and GDP in Bangladesh. These results will help policymakers design financial policies in Bangladesh and other developing countries, which face the dilemma of financial liberalization while maintaining a high and stable output growth. JEL Classification: E44, O40, C22

Suggested Citation

  • Anupam Das & Syeed Khan, 2016. "Financial Development and Output: A Synthesis of Time Series Cointegration and Causality Tests for Bangladesh," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 5(2), pages 113-132, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:smppub:v:5:y:2016:i:2:p:113-132
    DOI: 10.1177/2277978716670788
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial development; Bangladesh; economic growth; cointegration; Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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