IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jospec/v20y2019i6p782-796.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Peculiar Preferences of Sports Fans: Toward a Preference-Based Motivation for the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Brad R. Humphreys
  • Thomas J. Miceli

Abstract

The uncertainty of outcome hypothesis (UOH) informs economic models of fan attendance decisions, team revenue generation, and league outcomes. Despite this importance, little attention has been paid to the role of consumer preferences in motivating the UOH. We develop consumer choice models that generate predictions consistent with the UOH. These models contain utility functions with diminishing marginal utility in team success, or Leontief preferences for success, and assume that league decisions are based on maximization of aggregate welfare. The most general specification shows that when the population contains both partisan and nonpartisan fans, perfect uncertainty of outcome is optimal.

Suggested Citation

  • Brad R. Humphreys & Thomas J. Miceli, 2019. "The Peculiar Preferences of Sports Fans: Toward a Preference-Based Motivation for the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(6), pages 782-796, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:20:y:2019:i:6:p:782-796
    DOI: 10.1177/1527002518817590
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1527002518817590
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1527002518817590?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Helmut M. Dietl & Markus Lang & Stephan Werner, 2009. "Social Welfare in Sports Leagues with Profit‐Maximizing and/or Win‐Maximizing Clubs," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(2), pages 375-396, October.
    2. Walter C. Neale, 1964. "The Peculiar Economics of Professional Sports," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 78(1), pages 1-14.
    3. Simon Rottenberg, 1956. "The Baseball Players' Labor Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64, pages 242-242.
    4. Dennis Coates & Brad R. Humphreys & Li Zhou, 2014. "Reference-Dependent Preferences, Loss Aversion, And Live Game Attendance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(3), pages 959-973, July.
    5. Helmut M. Dietl & Egon Franck & Markus Lang & Alexander Rathke, 2012. "Salary Cap Regulation In Professional Team Sports," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 30(3), pages 307-319, July.
    6. Jeffrey Ely & Alexander Frankel & Emir Kamenica, 2015. "Suspense and Surprise," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(1), pages 215-260.
    7. Whitney, James D, 1988. "Winning Games versus Winning Championships: The Economics of Fan Interest and Team Performance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(4), pages 703-724, October.
    8. Helmut M. Dietl & Markus Lang & Stephan Werner, 2009. "Social Welfare in Sports Leagues with Profit-Maximizing and/or Win-Maximizing Clubs," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(2), pages 375-396, October.
    9. Stefan Kesenne, 2000. "Revenue Sharing and Competitive Balance in Professional Team Sports," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 1(1), pages 56-65, February.
    10. William Chan & Pascal Courty & Li Hao, 2009. "Suspense: Dynamic Incentives in Sports Contests," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 24-46, January.
    11. Rodney Fort & James Quirk, 1995. "Cross-subsidization, Incentives, and Outcomes in Professional Team Sports Leagues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1265-1299, September.
    12. Georgios Nalbantis & Tim Pawlowski & Dennis Coates, 2017. "The Fans’ Perception of Competitive Balance and Its Impact on Willingness-to-Pay for a Single Game," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(5), pages 479-505, June.
    13. El-Hodiri, Mohamed & Quirk, James, 1971. "An Economic Model of a Professional Sports League," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(6), pages 1302-1319, Nov.-Dec..
    14. Jigyu Chung & Young Hoon Lee & Joon-Ho Kang, 2016. "Ex Ante and Ex Post Expectations of Outcome Uncertainty and Baseball Television Viewership," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(8), pages 790-812, December.
    15. Tim Pawlowski, 2013. "Testing the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in European Professional Football," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(4), pages 341-367, August.
    16. Rodney Fort & James Quirk, 2011. "Optimal Competitive Balance In A Season Ticket League," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(2), pages 464-473, April.
    17. Brad R. Humphreys & Li Zhou, 2015. "The Louis–Schmelling Paradox and the League Standing Effect Reconsidered," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(8), pages 835-852, December.
    18. Rodney Fort & James Quirk, 2010. "Optimal Competitive Balance in Single-Game Ticket Sports Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 11(6), pages 587-601, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hayley Jang & Doyoung Kim & Young Hoon Lee, 2023. "Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis: Theoretical Development and Empirical Evaluation," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 62(3), pages 271-291, May.
    2. Thomas J. Miceli, 2024. "A Note on the Preferences of Sports Fans: Partisanship Versus Uncertainty of Outcome," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(2), pages 155-168, February.
    3. Brian M. Mills & Rodney Fort, 2023. "Performance Quality Preference Heterogeneity in Major League Baseball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(3), pages 352-373, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Raul Caruso & Francesco Addesa & Marco Di Domizio, 2019. "The Determinants of the TV Demand for Soccer: Empirical Evidence on Italian Serie A for the Period 2008-2015," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(1), pages 25-49, January.
    2. Helmut Dietl & Egon Franck & Markus Lang & Alexander Rathke, 2010. "Organizational Differences between U.S. Major Leagues and European Leagues: Implications for Salary Caps," Working Papers 0122, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU).
    3. Alexander John Bond & Francesco Addesa, 2020. "Competitive Intensity, Fans’ Expectations, and Match-Day Tickets Sold in the Italian Football Serie A, 2012-2015," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(1), pages 20-43, January.
    4. Markus LANG & Alexander RATHKE & Marco RUNKEL, 2010. "The Economic Consequences Of Foreigner Rules In National Sports Leagues," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 31, pages 47-64.
    5. Pedro Garcia-del-Barrio & J. James Reade, 2022. "Does certainty on the winner diminish the interest in sport competitions? The case of formula one," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 1059-1079, August.
    6. Oliver Gürtler & Markus Lang & Tim Pawlowski, 2015. "On the Release of Players to National Teams," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(7), pages 695-713, October.
    7. Tim Pawlowski & Georgios Nalbantis & Dennis Coates, 2018. "Perceived Game Uncertainty, Suspense And The Demand For Sport," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 173-192, January.
    8. Helmut Dietl & Egon Franck & Martin Grossmann & Markus Lang, 2009. "Contest Theory and its Applications in Sports," Working Papers 0105, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU).
    9. Duane Rockerbie & Stephen Easton, 2018. "Revenue Sharing in Major League Baseball: The Moments That Meant so Much," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-16, August.
    10. Helmut M. Dietl & Martin Grossmann & Markus Lang, 2011. "Competitive Balance and Revenue Sharing in Sports Leagues With Utility-Maximizing Teams," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(3), pages 284-308, June.
    11. Brown, Katie M. & Salaga, Steven, 2018. "NCAA football television viewership: Product quality and consumer preference relative to market expectations," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 377-390.
    12. Helmut M. Dietl & Markus Lang & Alexander Rathke, 2011. "The Combined Effect Of Salary Restrictions And Revenue Sharing In Sports Leagues," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(2), pages 447-463, April.
    13. Dietl, Helmut M. & Duschl, Tobias & Lang, Markus, 2011. "Executive Pay Regulation: What Regulators, Shareholders, and Managers Can Learn from Major Sports Leagues," Business and Politics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 1-30, August.
    14. John Charles Bradbury, 2019. "Determinants Of Revenue In Sports Leagues: An Empirical Assessment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 121-140, January.
    15. Lucas M. Besters & Jan (J.C.) van Ours & Martin A. van Tuijl, 2018. "How outcome uncertainty, loss aversion and team quality affect stadium attendance in Dutch professional football," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-082/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    16. Georgios Nalbantis & Tim Pawlowski, 2019. "U.S. Demand for European Soccer Telecasts: A Between-Country Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(6), pages 797-818, August.
    17. Besters, Lucas M. & van Ours, Jan C. & van Tuijl, Martin A., 2019. "How outcome uncertainty, loss aversion and team quality affect stadium attendance in Dutch professional football," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 117-127.
    18. Daniel Read & Aaron C.T. Smith & James Skinner, 2021. "A Comparative Analysis of Competitive Balance Between a Closed and an Open League in Rugby League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(8), pages 871-892, December.
    19. Madden, Paul, 2012. "Fan welfare maximization as a club objective in a professional sports league," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 560-578.
    20. Martin Grossmann & Helmut Dietl & Markus Lang, 2010. "Revenue Sharing and Competitive Balance in a Dynamic Contest Model," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 36(1), pages 17-36, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:20:y:2019:i:6:p:782-796. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.