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AFTA and Trade Diversion: An Empirical Study for Vietnam and Singapore

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  • Nguyen K. Doanh
  • Yoon Heo

Abstract

This paper analyses and compares the economic effects of ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) on the trade flows of Vietnam and Singapore. Using the gravity model, the study shows a number of robust empirical findings. First, on the multilateral trade flows of Vietnam and Singapore, the model reveals no trade diversion following integration. Second, trade flows are not significantly affected immediately following the signing of the AFTA agreement. Third, trade distance still remains a hindrance to trade, indicating that globalization and integration have not mitigated the relevance of physical distance even though technological innovations continue to reduce transportation costs. Fourth, cultural familiarity, as a proxy for linguistic affinity and colonial relationship, continues to be an important determinant of bilateral trade flows. Finally, differences in per capita income among trading partners continue to have negative impacts on bilateral trade. Efforts to narrow the GDP gaps among members, improving social infrastructure, and continued domestic reforms are suggested as remedies for the obstacles to freerflows of trade in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen K. Doanh & Yoon Heo, 2009. "AFTA and Trade Diversion: An Empirical Study for Vietnam and Singapore," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 163-192, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:intare:v:12:y:2009:i:1:p:163-192
    DOI: 10.1177/223386590901200109
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    Cited by:

    1. Thi Hong Hanh Bui & Qiting Chen, 2017. "An Analysis of Factors Influencing Rice Export in Vietnam Based on Gravity Model," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 8(3), pages 830-844, September.
    2. Nguyen Thi Ha TRANG & Nguyen Thi Thanh TAM & Vu Hoang NAM, 2011. "An inquiry into the determinants of Vietnamese product export," Working Papers 08, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
    3. Zaenal Mutaqin & Masaru Ichihashi, 2013. "Widening and Deepening Economic Integration Impact on Bilateral Trade in the Eurozone and ASEAN," IDEC DP2 Series 3-3, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC).
    4. Thi Hanh Vu, 2013. "International Export Flows of Vietnam :A Gravity Model Approach," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 56(1), pages 83-108.
    5. Hanh Vu Thi, 2015. "Essays on the Export Performance of Vietnam/Essais sur la Performance à l'Exportation du Vietnam," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/216765, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Vu, Hanh Thi & Doan, Hung Quang, 2013. "Vietnamese rice exports: Do large destination markets stimulate?," MPRA Paper 63891, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2013.

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