IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/snbeco/v1y2021i7d10.1007_s43546-021-00086-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of Pakistan–China FTA by propensity score matching with difference in differences

Author

Listed:
  • Arsalan Ahmed

    (Dawood University of Engineering and Technology Karachi
    Shandong University)

  • Qi Jian Hong

    (Shandong University)

  • Hassan Tahir

    (Ocean University of China, Faculty of Science)

Abstract

This study explores the effect of the Pakistan–China Free trade agreement on the export value and dual margins of trade for Pakistan and China. This study attempts to fill the gap in the literature related to the Pakistan–China Free trade agreement. It will determine the average treatment effect of T of Pakistan–China FTA on the export value and dual margin of trade for Pakistan and China under Pakistan–China FTA through Propensity Score Matching with Difference-in-Differences (PSM-DID). Also, the study focuses on both the aggregate level and three significant commodities. According to the results, After Pakistan–China FTA, the export value and intensive margin of Pakistan to the Chinese market increased in both the FTA inclusive and FTA exclusive commodities. However, this increment is much higher for the commodities that are not included in Pakistan–China FTA compared to the commodities included in Pakistan–China FTA. Nevertheless, the increment in the extensive margin is higher for the commodities included in Pakistan–China FTA compared to the commodities that are not included in the Pakistan–China FTA. Also, the Pakistan–China FTA's effect on the export value of Pakistan to China is found to be higher in fishery products compared to salt, stone, cement, and cotton. Correspondingly, the growth in the intensive and extensive margin of Pakistan's exports to China due to Pakistan–China is higher in the fishery products as compare to the salt, stone, cement, and cotton.

Suggested Citation

  • Arsalan Ahmed & Qi Jian Hong & Hassan Tahir, 2021. "Analysis of Pakistan–China FTA by propensity score matching with difference in differences," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-29, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:1:y:2021:i:7:d:10.1007_s43546-021-00086-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s43546-021-00086-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s43546-021-00086-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s43546-021-00086-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chang, Pao-Li & Lee, Myoung-Jae, 2011. "The WTO trade effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 53-71, September.
    2. Hyun Joung Jin & Won W. Koo & Bongsik Sul, 2006. "The Effects Of The Free Trade Agreement Among China, Japan And South Korea," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 55-72, December.
    3. Jane Korinek & Mark Melatos, 2009. "Trade Impacts of Selected Regional Trade Agreements in Agriculture," OECD Trade Policy Papers 87, OECD Publishing.
    4. Thierry Mayer & Marc J. Melitz & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, 2021. "Market Size, Competition, and the Product Mix of Exporters," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 5, pages 109-150, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Kimberly A. Clausing, 2001. "Trade creation and trade diversion in the Canada - United States Free Trade Agreement," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 677-696, August.
    6. Costas Arkolakis & Sharat Ganapati & Marc-Andreas Muendler, 2021. "The Extensive Margin of Exporting Products: A Firm-Level Analysis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 182-245, October.
    7. Shanping Yang & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2013. "A Panel Data Analysis of Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects: The case of ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA)," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 224, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-959, December.
    9. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2013. "Estimating the Effects of Kyoto on Bilateral Trade Flows Using Matching Econometrics," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 303-330, March.
    10. Sapir, André, 1997. "Domino Effects in Western European Trade, 1960-92," CEPR Discussion Papers 1576, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Magee, Christopher S.P., 2008. "New measures of trade creation and trade diversion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 349-362, July.
    12. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    13. Volker Nocke & Stephen Yeaple, 2006. "Globalization and Endogenous Firm Scope," NBER Working Papers 12322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Klein, Michael W., 2005. "Dollarization and trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 935-943, October.
    15. Greenaway, David & Milner, Chris, 2002. "Regionalism and Gravity," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 574-585, December.
    16. Rose, Andrew K & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Currency Unions and International Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1067-1089, November.
    17. Francisco L. Rivera-Batiz & Luis A. Rivera-Batiz, 2018. "Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Francisco L Rivera-Batiz & Luis A Rivera-Batiz (ed.), International Trade, Capital Flows and Economic Development, chapter 1, pages 3-32, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Sorgho, Zakaria & Tharakan, Joe, 2019. "Assessing the impact of unilateral trade policies EBA and AGOA on African beneficiaries' exports using matching econometrics," LIDAM Reprints CORE 3087, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    19. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
    20. Andrew B. Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2003. "Plants and Productivity in International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1268-1290, September.
    21. Philippa Dee & Jyothi Gali, 2005. "The Trade and Investment Effects of Preferential Trading Arrangements," NBER Chapters, in: International Trade in East Asia, pages 133-176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2012. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 94-130, February.
    23. Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 2002. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 281-316, April.
    24. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    25. Zakaria Sorgho & Joe Tharakan, 2019. "Assessing the impact of unilateral trade policies EBA and AGOA on African beneficiaries' exports using matching econometrics," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(10), pages 3086-3118, October.
    26. Pandej Chintrakarn, 2008. "Estimating the Euro Effects on Trade with Propensity Score Matching," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 186-198, February.
    27. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    28. David Greenaway & Chris Milner, 2002. "Regionalism and Gravity," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 574-585, November.
    29. Sapir, Andre, 2001. "Domino effects in Western European regional trade, 1960-1992," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 377-388, June.
    30. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    31. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February.
    32. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    33. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-1721, September.
    34. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    35. Aitken, Norman D, 1973. "The Effect of the EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A Temporal Cross-Section Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(5), pages 881-892, December.
    36. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72, October.
    37. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2009. "Estimating the effects of free trade agreements on international trade flows using matching econometrics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 63-76, February.
    38. André Sapir, 1981. "Trade benefits under the EEC generalized system of preferences," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8290, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    39. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6g0gsihsjmn5snc9pb0jo6hhp is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Robert A. Moffitt, 2004. "Introduction to the Symposium on the Econometrics of Matching," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 1-3, February.
    41. Busani Moyo & Mamello Nchake & Blessing Chiripanhura, 2018. "An evaluation of the US African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) trade arrangement with Sub-Saharan African countries," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 71(287), pages 389-418.
    42. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 434-448.
    43. Egger, Hartmut & Egger, Peter & Greenaway, David, 2008. "The trade structure effects of endogenous regional trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 278-298, March.
    44. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    45. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6apm7lruv088iagm4rv2c33jtg is not listed on IDEAS
    46. Ghosh, Sucharita & Yamarik, Steven, 2004. "Are regional trading arrangements trade creating?: An application of extreme bounds analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 369-395, July.
    47. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," Post-Print hal-03579844, HAL.
    48. Lubinga, Moses H. & Potelwa, Yolanda & Ntshangase, Thandeka & Nyondo, Bonani & Ngqangeni, Simphiwe, 2016. "The effect of the GSP scheme on the European Union’s horticultural imports from SADC member countries: A Triple-Difference Approach," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246449, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    49. Michele Fratianni & Heejoon Kang, 2006. "International Terrorism, International Trade, and Borders," Working Papers 2006-13, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy.
    50. Pravakar Sahoo, 2012. "The economic relations of China and India with Pakistan: a comparative analysis," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 19(1), pages 1-35, June.
    51. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Jung, Benjamin & Larch, Mario, 2015. "The welfare consequences of import tariffs: A quantitative perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 295-309.
    52. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2009. "Estimating the effects of free trade agreements on international trade flows using matching econometrics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 63-76, February.
    2. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    6. Theo S. Eicher & Christian Henn, 2011. "One Money, One Market: A Revised Benchmark," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 419-435, August.
    7. Kristian Behrens & Giordano Mion & Yasusada Murata & Jens Südekum, 2014. "Trade, Wages, And Productivity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1305-1348, November.
    8. Rahel Aichele, 2013. "Trade, Climate Policy and Carbon Leakage - Theory and Empirical Evidence," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 49.
    9. Jayjit Roy, 2014. "On the robustness of the trade-inducing effects of trade agreements and currency unions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 253-304, August.
    10. Bianka Dettmer, 2012. "The European Union's service directive: Contrasting ex ante estimates with empirical evidence," Jena Economics Research Papers 2012-019, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    11. Dennis Novy, 2013. "Gravity Redux: Measuring International Trade Costs With Panel Data," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 101-121, January.
    12. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Cray, Stephen R. & Gervais, Antoine, 2023. "Increasing marginal costs, firm heterogeneity, and the gains from “deep” international trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    13. Jeffrey H. Bergstrand, 2013. "Measuring the Effects of Endogenous Policies on Economic Integration," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 59(2), pages 199-222, June.
    14. Tamaş Anca, 2020. "Why should the gravity model be taught in business education?," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 14(1), pages 422-433, July.
    15. Jeffrey H. Bergstrand & Stephen R. Cray & Antoine Gervais, 2023. "Increasing Marginal Costs, Firm Heterogeneity,and the Gains from "Deep" International Trade Agreements," Cahiers de recherche 23-01, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    16. Scott L. Baier & Amanda Kerr & Yoto V. Yotov, 2018. "Gravity, distance, and international trade," Chapters, in: Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson (ed.), Handbook of International Trade and Transportation, chapter 2, pages 15-78, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Simonovska, Ina & Waugh, Michael E., 2014. "The elasticity of trade: Estimates and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 34-50.
    18. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    19. Melitz, Marc J. & Redding, Stephen J., 2014. "Heterogeneous Firms and Trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 1-54, Elsevier.
    20. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2012. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 94-130, February.
    21. Cardamone, Paola, 2007. "A Survey of the Assessments of the Effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using Gravity Models," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 60(4), pages 421-473.
    22. Güzin Bayar, 2018. "Estimating export equations: a survey of the literature," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 629-672, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pakistan–China FTA; Extensive margin; Intensive margin; Propensity score matching; Difference in differences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • B17 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - International Trade and Finance
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:1:y:2021:i:7:d:10.1007_s43546-021-00086-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.