IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/jtralu/0033.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simultaneous modeling of developer behavior and land prices in UrbanSim

Author

Listed:
  • Felsenstein, Daniel

    (Institute of Urban and Regional Studies, Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Israel)

  • Ashbel, Eyal

    (Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

Abstract

A strong inter-dependence exists between the decision to develop land and the expected returns to be gained from that development. Current practice in UrbanSim modeling treats developer behavior and the emergence of land prices as independent processes. This assumes that land prices are exogenous to the interaction between buyers and sellers—an assumption that is difficult to sustain in urban economics and real estate research. This paper presents an attempt to model the two processes as occurring simultaneously. Using the UrbanSim model for metropolitan Tel Aviv, we compare the results of forecasts for densities (residential and non-residential) and land values for the period 2001–2020. Our results show that simultaneous estimation tends to produce more accentuated outcomes and volatile trends. The validity of these results and the implications of this approach in the wider context of land use modeling are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Felsenstein, Daniel & Ashbel, Eyal, 2010. "Simultaneous modeling of developer behavior and land prices in UrbanSim," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 3(2), pages 107-127.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:jtralu:0033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.jtlu.org/index.php/jtlu/article/view/175/119
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. de Palma, Andre & Picard, Nathalie & Waddell, Paul, 2007. "Discrete choice models with capacity constraints: An empirical analysis of the housing market of the greater Paris region," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 204-230, September.
    2. Mayer, Christopher J. & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2000. "Land use regulation and new construction," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 639-662, December.
    3. Ellickson, Bryan, 1981. "An alternative test of the hedonic theory of housing markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 56-79, January.
    4. Omar M. G. Keshk, 2003. "CDSIMEQ: A program to implement two-stage probit least squares," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(2), pages 157-167, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Man Jiao & Hengzhou Xu, 2022. "Does Rural Construction Land Marketization Inhibit State-Owned Industrial Land Transactions? Evidence from Huzhou City, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-17, September.
    2. Felsenstein, Daniel & Axhausen, Kay & Waddell, Paul, 2010. "Land use-transportation modeling with UrbanSim: Experiences and progress," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 3(2), pages 1-3.
    3. Shahab Valaei Sharif & Dawn Cassandra Parker & Paul Waddell & Ted Tsiakopoulos, 2023. "Understanding the Effects of Market Volatility on Profitability Perceptions of Housing Market Developers," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-34, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bhat, Chandra R., 2015. "A comprehensive dwelling unit choice model accommodating psychological constructs within a search strategy for consideration set formation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 161-188.
    2. Elliot Anenberg & Edward Kung, 2018. "Can More Housing Supply Solve the Affordability Crisis? Evidence from a Neighborhood Choice Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-035, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Hans R. A. Koster & Jos N. van Ommeren & Piet Rietveld, 2016. "Historic amenities, income and sorting of households," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 203-236.
    4. Han, Wenjing & Zhang, Xiaoling & Zheng, Xian, 2020. "Land use regulation and urban land value: Evidence from China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    5. François Ortalo-Magné & Andrea Prat, 2005. "The Political Economy of Housing Supply," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000954, UCLA Department of Economics.
    6. Michel Beine & Marco Delogu & Lionel Ragot, 2020. "The role of fees in foreign education: evidence from Italy [Determinants of international student migration]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 571-600.
    7. De Palma, Andre & Motamedi, Kiarash & Picard, Nathalie & Waddell, Paul, 2007. "Accessibility and environmental quality: inequality in the Paris housing market," European Transport \ Trasporti Europei, ISTIEE, Institute for the Study of Transport within the European Economic Integration, issue 36, pages 47-74.
    8. Christian A. L. Hilber, 2017. "The Economic Implications of House Price Capitalization: A Synthesis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 45(2), pages 301-339, April.
    9. Gomes, Fábio Augusto Reis & Paz, Lourenço Senne, 2008. "The Determinants of Criminal Victimization in São Paulo State, Brazil," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 28(2), November.
    10. Paul C. Cheshire & Christian A. L. Hilber, 2008. "Office Space Supply Restrictions in Britain: The Political Economy of Market Revenge," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(529), pages 185-221, June.
    11. Arno Vlist & Daniel Czamanski & Henk Folmer, 2011. "Immigration and urban housing market dynamics: the case of Haifa," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 47(3), pages 585-598, December.
    12. Christian A. L. Hilber, 2019. "Immobilienpreise und Immobilienzyklen und die Rolle von Angebotsbeschränkungen [The impact of local supply constraints on house prices and price dynamics]," Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie (German Journal of Real Estate Research), Springer;Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e. V., vol. 5(1), pages 37-65, November.
    13. Ehrlich, Maximilian V. & Hilber, Christian A.L. & Schöni, Olivier, 2018. "Institutional settings and urban sprawl: Evidence from Europe," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 4-18.
    14. Jeffrey E. Zabel & Robert W. Paterson, 2006. "The Effects of Critical Habitat Designation on Housing Supply: An Analysis of California Housing Construction Activity," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 67-95, February.
    15. McDonald, John F. & McMillen, Daniel P., 2000. "Employment Subcenters and Subsequent Real Estate Development in Suburban Chicago," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 135-157, July.
    16. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2006. "Military expenditure in post-conflict societies," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 89-107, January.
    17. Aparicio, Sebastian & Audretsch, David & Noguera, Maria & Urbano, David, 2022. "Can female entrepreneurs boost social mobility in developing countries? An institutional analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    18. Ormosi, Peter L., 2012. "Claim efficiencies or offer remedies? An analysis of litigation strategies in EC mergers," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 578-592.
    19. Michel Beine & Marco Delogu & Lionel Ragot, 2017. "The Role of Fees in Foreign Education: Evidence From Italy and the United Kingdom," Working Papers 2017-04, CEPII research center.
    20. Russo, Francesco & Musolino, Giuseppe, 2012. "A unifying modelling framework to simulate the Spatial Economic Transport Interaction process at urban and national scales," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 189-197.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:jtralu:0033. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Arlene Mathison (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ctumnus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.