Military expenditure in post-conflict societies
AbstractPost-conflict situations face a high risk of reversion to conflict. We investigate the effect of military expenditure by the government during the first decade post-conflict on the risk of reversion. We contrast two theories as to the likely effects. In one, military spending deters conflict by reducing the prospects of rebel success. In the other it acts as a signal to the rebels of government intentions. In the signalling model, low military spending signals that the government intends to adhere to the terms of the peace settlement and so reduces the risk of renewed rebellion. We investigate the effects of post-conflict military spending on the risk of conflict, using our existing models of military expenditure and of conflict risk. We find that, consistent with the signalling model, high military spending post-conflict significantly increases the risk of renewed conflict. This effect of military spending is distinctive to post-conflict period, and becomes progressively more pronounced over the decade. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2006
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Economics of Governance.
Volume (Year): 7 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (01)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/10101/index.htm
Other versions of this item:
- H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
- F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
- O10 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Walter, Barbara F., 1997. "The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(03), pages 335-364, June.
- Malcolm Knight & Norman Loayza & Delano Villanueva, 1996.
"The Peace Dividend: Military Spending Cuts and Economic Growth,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 1-37, March.
- Knight, Malcolm & Loayza, Norman & Villanueva, Delano, 1996. "The peace dividend : military spending cuts and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1577, The World Bank.
- Malcolm D. Knight & Delano Villanueva & Norman Loayza, 1995. "The Peace Dividend - Military Spending Cuts and Economic Growth," IMF Working Papers 95/53, International Monetary Fund.
- Omar M. G. Keshk, 2003. "CDSIMEQ: A program to implement two-stage probit least squares," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(2), pages 157-167, June.
- J Paul Dunne & Nan Tian, 2013. "Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Heterogeneity," SALDRU Working Papers 95, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
- Siyan Chen & Norman V. Loayza & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2008.
"The Aftermath of Civil War,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 22(1), pages 63-85, February.
- Siyan Chen & Norman V. Loayza & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2007. "The aftermath of Civil War," Economics Working Papers 1043, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Chen, Siyan & Loayza, Norman V. & Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2007. "The aftermath of civil war," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4190, The World Bank.
- Fabrizio Carmignani & Adrian Gauci, 2009. "Does fiscal policy differ between successful and unsuccessful post-conflict transitions? Lessons from African Civil Wars," Discussion Papers Series 402, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
- Indra de Soysa & Eric Neumayer, 2005.
"Disarming Fears of Diversity: Ethnic Heterogeneity and State Militarization, 1988–2002,"
0503008, EconWPA, revised 01 Sep 2005.
- de Soysa, Indra & Neumayer, Eric, 2007. "Disarming fears of diversity : ethnic heterogeneity and state militarization, 1988-2002," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4221, The World Bank.
- Germà Bel & Ferran Elias-Moreno, 2009.
"Institutional Determinants of Military Spending,"
IREA Working Papers
200922, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2009.
- Baddeley, M.C., 2008. "Poverty, Armed Conflict and Financial Instability," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0857, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.