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Military expenditure in post-conflict societies

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  • Paul Collier
  • Anke Hoeffler

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Abstract

Post-conflict situations face a high risk of reversion to conflict. We investigate the effect of military expenditure by the government during the first decade post-conflict on the risk of reversion. We contrast two theories as to the likely effects. In one, military spending deters conflict by reducing the prospects of rebel success. In the other it acts as a signal to the rebels of government intentions. In the signalling model, low military spending signals that the government intends to adhere to the terms of the peace settlement and so reduces the risk of renewed rebellion. We investigate the effects of post-conflict military spending on the risk of conflict, using our existing models of military expenditure and of conflict risk. We find that, consistent with the signalling model, high military spending post-conflict significantly increases the risk of renewed conflict. This effect of military spending is distinctive to post-conflict period, and becomes progressively more pronounced over the decade. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2006

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Economics of Governance.

Volume (Year): 7 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (01)
Pages: 89-107

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Handle: RePEc:spr:ecogov:v:7:y:2006:i:1:p:89-107

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Related research

Keywords: Military expenditure; peace dividend; civil war;

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References

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  1. Walter, Barbara F., 1997. "The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(03), pages 335-364, June.
  2. Omar M. G. Keshk, 2003. "CDSIMEQ: A program to implement two-stage probit least squares," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(2), pages 157-167, June.
  3. Knight, Malcolm & Loayza, Norman & Villanueva, Delano, 1996. "The peace dividend : military spending cuts and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1577, The World Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Germà Bel & Ferran Elias-Moreno, 2009. "Institutional Determinants of Military Spending," IREA Working Papers 200922, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2009.
  2. Chen, Siyan & Loayza, Norman V. & Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2007. "The aftermath of civil war," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4190, The World Bank.
  3. de Soysa, Indra & Neumayer, Eric, 2007. "Disarming fears of diversity : ethnic heterogeneity and state militarization, 1988-2002," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4221, The World Bank.
  4. Byrd, William & Guimbert, Stephane, 2009. "Public Finance, Security, and Development: A Framework and an Application to Afghanistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4806, The World Bank.
  5. Fabrizio Carmignani & Adrian Gauci, 2009. "Does fiscal policy differ between successful and unsuccessful post-conflict transitions? Lessons from African Civil Wars," Discussion Papers Series 402, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  6. repec:ldr:wpaper:95 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler & Anke Hoeffler & Måns Söderbom, 2006. "Post-Conflict Risks," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2006-12, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  8. Baddeley, M.C., 2008. "Poverty, Armed Conflict and Financial Instability," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0857, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Abdelbaki, Professor Hisham, 2013. "The Arab spring: do we need a new theory?," MPRA Paper 54801, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.

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