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Military Expenditure in Post-Conflict Societies

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Author Info
Paul Collier (Centre for the Study of African Economies)
Anke Hoeffler (Centre for the Study of African Economies)

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Abstract

Post-conflict situations face a high risk of reversion to conflict. We investigate the effect of military expenditure by the government during the first decade post-conflict on the risk of reversion. We contrast two theories as to the likely effects. In one, military spending deters conflict by reducing the prospects of rebel success. In the other it acts as a signal to the rebels of government intentions. In the signalling model, low military spending signals that the government intends to adhere to the terms of the peace settlement and so reduces the risk of renewed rebellion. We investigate the effects of post- conflict military spending on the risk of conflict, using our existing models of military expenditure and of conflict risk. We find that, consistent with the signalling model, high military spending post- conflict significantly increases the risk of renewed conflict. This effect of military spending is distinctive to post-conflict period, and becomes progressively more pronounced over the decade.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Development and Comp Systems with number 0409059.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 28 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0409059

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 30
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
O10 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Walter, Barbara F., 1997. "The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(03), pages 335-364, June. [Downloadable!]
  2. Knight, Malcolm & Loayza, Norman & Villanueva, Delano, 1996. "The peace dividend : military spending cuts and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1577, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Omar M. G. Keshk, 2003. "CDSIMEQ: A program to implement two-stage probit least squares," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(2), pages 157-167, June. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Siyan Chen & Norman V. Loayza & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2007. "The Aftermath of Civil War," Economics Working Papers 1043, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  2. de Soysa, Indra & Neumayer, Eric, 2007. "Disarming fears of diversity : ethnic heterogeneity and state militarization, 1988-2002," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4221, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Baddeley, M.C., 2008. "Poverty, Armed Conflict and Financial Instability," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0857, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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