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Military Expenditure in Post-Conflict Societies

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  • Paul Collier

    (Centre for the Study of African Economies)

  • Anke Hoeffler

    (Centre for the Study of African Economies)

Abstract

Post-conflict situations face a high risk of reversion to conflict. We investigate the effect of military expenditure by the government during the first decade post-conflict on the risk of reversion. We contrast two theories as to the likely effects. In one, military spending deters conflict by reducing the prospects of rebel success. In the other it acts as a signal to the rebels of government intentions. In the signalling model, low military spending signals that the government intends to adhere to the terms of the peace settlement and so reduces the risk of renewed rebellion. We investigate the effects of post- conflict military spending on the risk of conflict, using our existing models of military expenditure and of conflict risk. We find that, consistent with the signalling model, high military spending post- conflict significantly increases the risk of renewed conflict. This effect of military spending is distinctive to post-conflict period, and becomes progressively more pronounced over the decade.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Development and Comp Systems with number 0409059.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 28 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0409059

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 30
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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  1. Omar M. G. Keshk, 2003. "CDSIMEQ: A program to implement two-stage probit least squares," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(2), pages 157-167, June.
  2. Malcolm Knight & Norman Loayza & Delano Villanueva, 1996. "The Peace Dividend: Military Spending Cuts and Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 1-37, March.
  3. Walter, Barbara F., 1997. "The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(03), pages 335-364, June.
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Cited by:
  1. de Soysa, Indra & Neumayer, Eric, 2007. "Disarming fears of diversity : ethnic heterogeneity and state militarization, 1988-2002," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4221, The World Bank.
  2. Siyan Chen & Norman V. Loayza & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2007. "The aftermath of Civil War," Economics Working Papers 1043, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  3. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler & Anke Hoeffler & Måns Söderbom, 2006. "Post-Conflict Risks," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2006-12, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Fabrizio Carmignani & Adrian Gauci, 2009. "Does fiscal policy differ between successful and unsuccessful post-conflict transitions? Lessons from African Civil Wars," Discussion Papers Series 402, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  5. repec:ldr:wpaper:95 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Byrd, William & Guimbert, Stephane, 2009. "Public Finance, Security, and Development: A Framework and an Application to Afghanistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4806, The World Bank.
  7. Albalate, Daniel & Bel, Germà & Elias, Ferran, 2012. "Institutional determinants of military spending," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-290.
  8. Baddeley, M.C., 2008. "Poverty, Armed Conflict and Financial Instability," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0857, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Abdelbaki, Professor Hisham, 2013. "The Arab spring: do we need a new theory?," MPRA Paper 54801, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.

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