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Prediction Ability

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  • Katsuya Takii

    (Osaka University)

Abstract

This paper models the value of managerial human capital as a function of the ability to predict profitability in the presence of risk. The model implies that the marginal productivity of prediction ability increases with increasing risk and that managers with high prediction ability will tend to work in risky industries. This prediction contrasts with the traditional view that talented managers concentrate in large firms. Business School placement data supports this hypothesis; talented Business School graduates choose to work in risky industries. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Katsuya Takii, 2003. "Prediction Ability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 80-98, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:6:y:2003:i:1:p:80-98
    DOI: 10.1016/S1094-2025(02)00009-1
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Katsuya Takii, 2007. "The Persistence of Differences in Productivity, Wages, Skill Mixes and Profits Between Firms," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 07-10, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    2. Takii, Katsuya, 2008. "Fiscal policy and entrepreneurship," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(3-4), pages 592-608, March.
    3. Takii, Katsuya & Sasaki, Masaru & Wan, Junmin, 2020. "Synchronized job transfer and task-specific human capital," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    4. Ueda, Masako & Li, Fei, 2005. "CEO-Firm Match and Principal-Agent Problem," CEPR Discussion Papers 5119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Katsuya Takii, 2009. "Entrepreneurial competition and its impact on the aggregate economy," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 97(1), pages 1-18, May.
    6. Masaru Sasaki & Katsuya Takii & Junmin Wan, 2012. "Horizontal Transfer and Promotion: New Evidence and an Interpretation from the Perspective of Task-Specific Human Capital," OSIPP Discussion Paper 12E006, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    7. Takii, Katsuya, 2007. "The value of adaptability--Through the analysis of a firm's prediction ability," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 144-162.
    8. Larrisa V. Shavinina, 2011. "What Do We Know About Managerial Talent? The Case-Study of Richard Branson as a Great Project Manager," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp2102011, Département des sciences administratives, UQO.
    9. Takanori Adachi & Takao Asano, 2011. "Entrepreneurial Choice and Knightian Uncertainty with Borrowing Constraints," KIER Working Papers 803, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    10. Takii, Katsuya, 2000. "Prediction ability and investment under uncertainty," Economics Discussion Papers 9991, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    11. Katsuya Takii, 2004. "Entrepreneurial Efficiency: An Empirical Framework and Evidence," Macroeconomics 0411006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Katsuya Takii, 2011. "Entrepreneurial Efficiency: Theory," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 196-214, June.
    13. Katsuya Takii, 2004. "Entrepreneurial Efficiency," Macroeconomics 0406007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Katsuya Takii, 2004. "The Value of Adaptability," Industrial Organization 0406004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Katsuya Takii, 2003. "Prediction Ability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 80-98, January.
    16. Katsuya Takii, 2008. "The Persistence of Differences in Productivity, Wages, Skill Mixes and Profits Between Firms in a Rapidly Changing Environment," OSIPP Discussion Paper 08E003, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    manager; entrepreneur; human capital; risk; complementarity; assignment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J44 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Professional Labor Markets and Occupations
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups

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