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Prediction Ability

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Katsuya Takii (University of Essex)

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Abstract

This paper models managerial human capital as the ability to predict future events. My assignment model shows that a manager who has high prediction ability goes into a risky industry, because risk increases the marginal productivity of prediction ability. This conclusion contrasts with that of Lucas (1978). In Lucas's model talented managers simply manage bigger firms. The data supports my view: talented B-school graduates choose to work in risky industries, and the correlation between an ability measure and a risk measure is 0.75. The simulated assignment model fits B-school placement data quite well, and a 1 percent increase in the GMAT score of a B-school graduate implies a 158 percent increase in the risk of the firm to which the graduate is assigned. I also employ a dynamic analysis, which shows that prediction ability increases a firm's expected Tobin's Q and allows a firm to attain a higher expected growth rate. The COMPUSTAT dataset confirms these points as well.

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers with number 1411.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1411

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  1. Miller, Robert A, 1984. "Job Matching and Occupational Choice," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(6), pages 1086-120, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Comin, D., 2000. "An Uncertainty-Driven Theory of the Productivity Slowdown: Manufacturing," Working Papers 00-16, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kihlstrom, Richard E, 1974. "A Bayesian Model of Demand for Information About Product Quality," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(1), pages 99-118, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Oi, Walter Y, 1983. "Heterogeneous Firms and the Organization of Production," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 147-71, April.
  5. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  6. Katsuya Takii, 2000. "Risk and prediction ability," Economics Discussion Papers 517, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  7. Schultz, Theodore W, 1975. "The Value of the Ability to Deal with Disequilibria," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 827-46, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Becker, Gary S, 1973. "A Theory of Marriage: Part I," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(4), pages 813-46, July-Aug.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Steven Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," NBER Working Papers 2387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Gretsky, Neil E. & Ostroy, Joseph M. & Zame, William R., 1999. "Perfect Competition in the Continuous Assignment Model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 60-118, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ann P. Bartel & Nachum Sicherman, 1999. "Technological Change and Wages: An Interindustry Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 285-325, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Holmes, Thomas J & Schmitz, James A, Jr, 1990. "A Theory of Entrepreneurship and Its Application to the Study of Business Transfers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(2), pages 265-94, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Sherwin Rosen, 1982. "Authority, Control, and the Distribution of Earnings," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 13(2), pages 311-323, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-79, June.
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  15. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 1978. "On the Size Distribution of Business Firms," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 9(2), pages 508-523, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Sattinger, Michael, 1993. "Assignment Models of the Distribution of Earnings," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 831-80, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Juhn, Chinhui & Murphy, Kevin M & Pierce, Brooks, 1993. "Wage Inequality and the Rise in Returns to Skill," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 410-42, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Katsuya Takii, 2000. "Prediction ability and investment under uncertainty," Economics Discussion Papers 518, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
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  19. Kihlstrom, Richard E & Laffont, Jean-Jacques, 1979. "A General Equilibrium Entrepreneurial Theory of Firm Formation Based on Risk Aversion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 719-48, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Katsuya Takii, 2004. "Entrepreneurial Efficiency: Theory," Macroeconomics 0411005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Katsuya Takii, 2004. "Fiscal Policy and Entrepreneurship," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 320, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Katsuya Takii, 2004. "Entrepreneurial Efficiency," Macroeconomics 0406007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Katsuya Takii, 2004. "The Value of Adaptability," Industrial Organization 0406004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Li, Fei & Ueda, Masako, 2005. "CEO-Firm Match and Principal-Agent Problem," CEPR Discussion Papers 5119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Katsuya Takii, 2009. "Entrepreneurial competition and its impact on the aggregate economy," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 97(1), pages 1-18, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Katsuya Takii, 2008. "The Persistence of Differences in Productivity, Wages, Skill Mixes and Profits Between Firms in a Rapidly Changing Environment," OSIPP Discussion Paper 08E003, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University. [Downloadable!]
  8. Katsuya Takii, 2007. "The Persistence of Differences in Productivity, Wages, Skill Mixes and Profits Between Firms," OSIPP Discussion Paper 07E002, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Katsuya Takii, 2004. "Entrepreneurial Efficiency: An Empirical Framework and Evidence," Macroeconomics 0411006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Katsuya Takii, 2004. "Prediction Ability and Investment under Uncertainty," Industrial Organization 0406005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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