This paper reexamines the effect of expansionary fiscal policy on the real GDP in the presense of entrepreneurship - firms' activities to predict and react to changes in consumers' taste. The existence of partial crowding out in this paper generates a trade off between private consumption and government expenditure. Since goverment expenditure can not reflect changes in consumers' taste, it reduces the importance of firms' ability to process local information for predicting changes in consumers' taste. It is shown that expansionary fiscal policy can lower the real GDP when idiosyncratic risk and the substitutability of goods are large, and firms have great ability to predict the changes. This paper also shows that expansionary fiscal policy discourgages investment in prediction ability in the short run, but does not affect it in the long run
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Find related papers by JEL classification: E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
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Katsuya Takii, 2003.
"Prediction Ability,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 80-98, January.
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Other versions:
Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 1999.
"Optimal fiscal and monetary policy,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 26, pages 1671-1745
Elsevier.
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