A contemporary investigation of causality between the primary government budget deficit and the ex ante real long term interest rate in the US
AbstractUsing error-correction model (ECM) estimation, this study empirically examines, for theUS, the causality relationship between the federal government budget deficitand the ex ante real long term interest rate. The system includes personal federal income tax rates, the M2 money supply, the unemployment rate, an ex ante realshort term interest rate and net international capital inflows. To clarify thedeficit/interest rate relationship, the budget deficit is measured by the primarydeficit, which excludes net interest payments by the Treasury. The ECM estimates in this study provide results that suggest a bi-directional relationship between theprimary budget deficit and the ex ante real long term interest rate yield.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Banca Nazionale del Lavoro in its journal Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review.
Volume (Year): 55 (2002)
Issue (Month): 223 ()
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Other versions of this item:
- Richard J. Cebula, 2002. "A contemporary investigation of causality between the primary government budget deficit and the ex ante real long term interest rate in the US," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(223), pages 417-435.
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
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