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Do Federal Deficits Really Matter?


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    This paper reviews competing views regarding interest rates and other economic effects of federal deficits. It discusses the findings of several empirical studies that have analyzed these relationships. The main points ofthe paper are that: (a) the con-cept of the deficit is ambiguous because not all deficits have the same economic effects, and (b) by slightly modifying existing studies, one is able to produce empirical evidence showing that deficits or debt do indeed raise interest rates and otherwise affect economic activity in ways consistent with the conven-tional view. Copyright 1984 Western Economic Association International.

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    Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Contemporary Economic Policy.

    Volume (Year): 3 (1984)
    Issue (Month): 1 (09)
    Pages: 79-95

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:3:y:1984:i:1:p:79-95

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    Cited by:
    1. Cebula, Richard, 2003. "The Impact of the Federal Budget Deficit on the Nominal Interest Rate Yield on US Treasury Notes, 1979-2001," MPRA Paper 49400, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Cebula, Richard & McGrath, Richard, 2006. "Identifying Determinants of the Cost of Long Term Borrowing for U.S. Firms: Insights for Management," MPRA Paper 49647, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Eric M. Engen & R. Glenn Hubbard, 2004. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 10681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Y Hsing, 2004. "Impacts of Dollar Depreciation and Low Deposit Rates on the US Economy," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, Economic Issues, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14, March.
    5. Cebula, Richard, 1996. "The Impact of Net International Capital Inflows on Nominal Long-Term Interest Rates in France," MPRA Paper 49401, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Jun 1996.
    6. Richard J. Cebula, 2002. "A contemporary investigation of causality between the primary government budget deficit and the ex ante real long term interest rate in the US," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(223), pages 417-435.
    7. Cebula, Richard & Foley, Maggie, 2012. "Recent Evidence on the Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Nominal Long Term Mortgage Interest Rate in the U.S," MPRA Paper 53691, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Cebula, Richard J., 1998. "An empirical analysis of the impact of federal budget deficits on long-term nominal interest rate yields, 1973.2-1995.4, using alternative expected inflation measures," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-64.
    9. Alexander, Gigi & Foley, Maggie, 2014. "On the Nominal Interest Rate Yield Response to Net Government Borrowing in the U.S.: An Empirical Analysis with Robustness Tests," MPRA Paper 56968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Cebula, Richard & Koch, James & Perry, William & Toma, Michael, 2003. "Federal Government Budget Deficits and the Crowding Out of Private Investment in the United states: Evidence for the 1990s," MPRA Paper 54571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "An Empirical Investigation into the Impact of U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Real Interest Rate Yield on Intermediate-term Treasury Debt Issues, 1972-2012," MPRA Paper 55269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "The Nominal Interest Rate Yield Response to Net Government Borrowing: GLM Estimates, 1972-2012," MPRA Paper 57428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Cebula, Richard, 1996. "An Empirical Note on the Impact of the Federal Budget Deficit on Ex Ante Real Long-Term, Interest Rates, 1973-1995," MPRA Paper 51414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Michael J. Boskin & Lawrence J. Lau, 1988. "An Analysis of U.S. Postwar Consumption and Saving: Part II -- Empirical Results," NBER Working Papers 2606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Longer-term Real Interest Rate in the U.S.: Evidence Using Annual and Quarterly Data, 1960-2013," MPRA Paper 55264, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Cebula, Richard & Koch, James, 1988. "An Empirical Note on Deficits, Interest Rates, and International Capital Flows," MPRA Paper 50165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Cebula, Richard & Scott, Gerald, 1990. "Deficits and Real Interest Rates: A Note Extending the Hoelscher Model," MPRA Paper 54608, University Library of Munich, Germany.


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