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Government deficit, ex post real long-term interest rates and causality

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  • R.J. CEBULA

    (Georgia Institute of Technology)

Abstract

A number of empirical studies have investigated the impact of the federal Government budget deficit on interest rates in the US with most of them concluding that it is positive and significant on long-term interest rates. Both the IS/LM and the loanable funds frameworks through which this relationship is usually couched imply that causality flows from increased deficits to interest rates. The present work argues that the direction of causality may well be the reverse, that is real long-term interest rates may cause the budget deficit. The author offers two reasons to support this hypothesis. First, much or the Government’s debt is financed or refinanced in just a few short years. Second, according to conventional macroeconomic theory, a rise in the real interest rate should lead to a fall in real economic growth. A multivariate causality test is employed to determine the direction of causality among the real long-term interest rate, the unemployment rate and the structural deficit.

Suggested Citation

  • R.J. Cebula, 1997. "Government deficit, ex post real long-term interest rates and causality," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(202), pages 325-336.
    • Handle: RePEc:psl:bnlaqr:1997:34
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    File URL: http://ojs.uniroma1.it/index.php/PSLQuarterlyReview/article/view/10581/10465
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    1. Bharat R. Kolluri & Rao N. Singamesetti & P. A. V. B. Swamy, 1988. "What do regressions of interest rates on deficits imply?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 3, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Richard J. Cebula, 1991. "A Brief Empirical Note on the Impact of Budget Deficits on the Real Municipal Bond Rate," Public Finance Review, , vol. 19(4), pages 437-443, October.
    4. Hoelscher, Gregory, 1986. "New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, February.
    5. Richard Cebula, 2003. "Budget deficits and interest rates in Germany," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 9(1), pages 64-68, February.
    6. James R. Barth & George Iden & Frank S. Russek, 1984. "Do Federal Deficits Really Matter?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 3(1), pages 79-95, September.
    7. Evans, Paul, 1985. "Do Large Deficits Produce High Interest Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 68-87, March.
    8. Cebula, Richard, 1990. "A Note on Federal Budget Deficits and the Term Structure of Real Interest Rates in the United States," MPRA Paper 50238, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1989. "A Political Theory of Government Debt and Deficits in a Neo-Ricardian Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 713-732, September.
    10. Feldstein, Martin S & Eckstein, Otto, 1970. "The Fundamental Determinants of the Interest Rate," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(4), pages 363-375, November.
    11. Cebula, Richard J, 1988. "Federal Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: An Empirical Analysis for the United States, 1955-1984," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 43(3), pages 337-348.
    12. Cebula, Richard J. & Bates, Kimberly & Marks, Louise & Roth, Allison, 1988. "Federal Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates in the United States: An Empirical Analysis," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 41(1-2), pages 1-7.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oseni O. Isiaq & Adesoye A. Bolaji, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Term Structure of Interest Rate in Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(2), pages 70-83, April.
    2. Richard J. Cebula, 2002. "A contemporary investigation of causality between the primary government budget deficit and the ex ante real long term interest rate in the US," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(223), pages 417-435.
    3. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "An Empirical Investigation into the Impact of U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Real Interest Rate Yield on Intermediate-term Treasury Debt Issues, 1972-2012," MPRA Paper 55269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Richard Cebula, 1998. "Budget deficits and long-term interest rates: 1973–91," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 4(4), pages 374-383, November.
    5. Daniel Choi & Mark Holmes, 2014. "Budget deficits and real interest rates: a regime-switching reflection on Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(1), pages 71-83, January.
    6. Richard J. Cebula, 2014. "Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Longer Term Real Interest Rate in the U.S.: Evidence Using Annual and Quarterly Data, 1960-2013," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 60(1), pages 23-40.
    7. Oseni O. Isiaq & Adesoye A. Bolaji, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Term Structure of Interest Rate in Nigeria," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(12), pages 70-83, April.
    8. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "Current Evidence on the Impact of Budget Deficits on the Nominal Interest Rate Yield on Intermediate-term Debt Issues of the U.S. Treasury: An Analysis with Robustness Tests," MPRA Paper 55923, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Yu Hsing, 2010. "Government Borrowing And The Longterm Interest Rate: Application Of An Extended Loanable Funds Model To The Slovak Republic," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 55(184), pages 58-70, January –.
    10. Yu Hsing, 2009. "Does more government deficit raise the interest rate? Application of extended loanable funds model to Slovenia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 27(2), pages 349-361.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budget deficit; interest rates; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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