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An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Federal Budget Deficits on Long-term Nominal Interest Rate Yields, 1973.2-1995.4, Using Alternative Expected Inflation Measures

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  • Cebula, Richard

Abstract

Using two alternative measures of expected inflation, this study investigates the impact of federal budget deficits on nominal long-term interest rate yields for the 1973.2-1995.4 period. Based on an open­ economy loanable funds framework, four instrumental variable esti­mates in first differences are provided. In all cases, the budget deficit is found to elevate the nominal long-term interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Cebula, Richard, 1997. "An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Federal Budget Deficits on Long-term Nominal Interest Rate Yields, 1973.2-1995.4, Using Alternative Expected Inflation Measures," MPRA Paper 50976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50976
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    1. Zelhorst, Dick & de Haan, Jakob, 1991. "Federal Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: Comment," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 46(2), pages 323-330.
    2. Hoelscher, Gregory, 1986. "New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, February.
    3. James R. Barth & George Iden & Frank S. Russek, 1984. "Do Federal Deficits Really Matter?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 3(1), pages 79-95, September.
    4. Evans, Paul, 1985. "Do Large Deficits Produce High Interest Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 68-87, March.
    5. Cebula, Richard J & Belton, Willie J, 1993. "Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates in the United States: Evidence for Closed and Open Systems Put into Perspective, 1955-1989," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(2), pages 188-209.
    6. Richard Cebula, 1989. "More on budget deficits and interest rates in the United States," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 93-97, January.
    7. Evans, Paul, 1987. "Interest Rates and Expected Future Budget Deficits in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 34-58, February.
    8. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1989. "A Political Theory of Government Debt and Deficits in a Neo-Ricardian Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 713-732, September.
    9. Thies, Clifford F, 1986. "Business Price Expectations: 1947-83," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 336-354, August.
    10. McMillin, W. Douglas, 1986. "Federal deficits and short-term interest rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 403-422.
    11. Mascaro, Angelo & Meltzer, Allan H., 1983. "Long- and short-term interest rates in a risky world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 485-518, November.
    12. Feldstein, Martin S & Eckstein, Otto, 1970. "The Fundamental Determinants of the Interest Rate," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(4), pages 363-375, November.
    13. Makin, John H, 1983. "Real Interest, Money Surprises, Anticipated Inflation and Fiscal Deficits," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 374-384, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Vieira, 2004. "The Deficit?Interest Rate Connection: an empirical assessment of the EU," Economics Working Papers 5_2004, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
    2. Eva‐Maria Kalteier & Peter N. Posch, 2013. "Sovereign asset values and implications for the credit market," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(2), pages 53-60, April.
    3. Richard J. Cebula, 2014. "Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Longer Term Real Interest Rate in the U.S.: Evidence Using Annual and Quarterly Data, 1960-2013," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 60(1), pages 23-40.
    4. Peter Claeys & Rosina Moreno & Jordi Suriñach, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates: The Role of Financial and Economic Integration," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Antonio Páez & Julie Gallo & Ron N. Buliung & Sandy Dall'erba (ed.), Progress in Spatial Analysis, pages 311-336, Springer.
    5. Richard J. Cebula, 2014. "An exploratory analysis of the impact of budget deficits and other factors on the ex post real interest rate yield on tax-free municipal bonds in the United States," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(19), pages 1297-1302, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    federal budget deficits; nominal long-term interest rates; crowding out;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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