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L'impact de la réduction des cotisations employeurs : quelques jalons macroéconomiques

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  • Hervé Le Bihan

Abstract

[fre] Les mesures de réduction du coût du travail, et notamment celles ciblées sur les bas salaires, ont pris depuis le début des années quatre-vingt-dix une place importante dans les politiques économiques en Europe. Cet article rappelle les expériences les plus notables (au Royaume- Uni et en France principalement) et fournit quelques évaluations de l'impact macroéconomique de ce type de mesures. Si différentes approches reconnaissent généralement une efficacité sur l'emploi à la baisse des cotisations sociales, la question d'un impact de long terme sur le chômage est plus controversée. Nous utilisons des simulations du modèle multinational MIMOSA pour mener des évaluations quantitatives à l'échelle européenne. Une réduction des cotisations sociales apparaît d'autant plus efficace pour l'emploi qu'elle est ciblée sur les bas salaires et qu'elle n'est pas financée par des prélèvements additionnels. Selon les hypothèses de financement et de réaction des politiques monétaires, une réduction ciblée d'un montant équivalent à 1% du PIB permettrait de réduire de 0,4 à 1,2 point le taux de chômage européen à l'horizon de 3 ans. [eng] Macroeconomic impact of reducing employers contributions short review Hervé Le Bihan Reducing labour cost has become a major policy issue in many European countries. Following Drèze, Malinvaud et alii (1994) reductions in labour tax targeted at low skill workers have been implemented. We first recall the main such policy experiences in EU countries, and provide short theoretical survey of the effect of reducing social contributions. While a labour tax cut stimulates employment in the short run, whether it might decrease equilibrium unemployment remains uncertain. We assess the macroeconomic effects of a reduction in employer's contributions using simulations of MIMOSA, a multinational model. An EU-wide decrease in employer's contributions of GDP may reduce in the short run the unemployment rate by up to &% according to the monetary and fiscal regime. A decrease in contributions targeted at low- wage workers might bring a further decline in unemployment, but reduces productivity.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 66 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 171-198

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1998_num_66_1_1512

Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1998.1512
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ofce

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  1. Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 1996. "Fiscalité, charges sociales, qualifications et emploi," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 125(4), pages 87-105.
  2. Henri Sterdyniak, 1995. "Vers une réforme fiscale en France ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 107-145.
  3. Henri Sterdyniak & Hervé Le Bihan, 1998. "Courbe de Phillips et modèle WS-PS. Quelques réflexions," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 49(3), pages 937-948.
  4. Gilbert Cette & Philippe Cuneo & Didier Eyssartier & Jérôme Gautié, 1996. "Coût du travail et emploi des jeunes," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 45-72.
  5. Henri Sterdyniak & Henri Delessy & Emmanuel Fourmann & Frédéric Lerais & Frédéric Busson, 1994. "Lutter contre le chômage de masse en Europe," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(1), pages 177-236.
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Cited by:
  1. Eric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 2000. "35 heures: réduction réduite," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1646, Sciences Po.
  2. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1646 is not listed on IDEAS

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