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Les déterminants du chômage d'équilibre : estimation d'un modèle WS-PS

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  • Nicolas Sobczak
  • Yannick L'Horty

Abstract

[fre] Les déterminants du chômage d'équilibre : estimation d'un modèle WS-PS par Yannick L'Horty et Nicolas Sobczak . Cette étude propose une évaluation du chômage d'équilibre en France sur la base d'une estimation d'un modèle WS-PS sur données macro-économiques trimestrielles. Dans un premier temps on discute les déterminants théoriques du chômage d'équilibre dans le cadre d'un modèle de négociation salariale avec des spécifications très générales. L'estimation multivariée d'un modèle minimal permet ensuite de mettre en évidence deux relations de cointégration à partir desquelles on identifie les formes structurelles des équations de prix et de salaire. Le socle constitué par le modèle minimal permet enfin d'explorer le rôle de plusieurs variables susceptibles de concourir à la formation du chômage d'équilibre, telles que le coin fiscalo-social, les termes de l'échange, l'indemnisation du chômage, ou le mismatch. Les estimations univariées et multivariées d'un modèle enrichi font ainsi apparaître le rôle déterminant du coin salarial, du ralentissement des gains de productivité, et plus modestement des revenus de remplacement dans la montée du chômage d'équilibre en France. [eng] The Determinants of Equilibrium Unemployment: Estimating a WS-PS Model by Yannick L'Horty and Nicolas Sobczak . This study proposes an evaluation of equilibrium unemployment in France based on an estimation of a WS-PS model using quarterly macroeconomic data. First of all, the theoretical determinants of equilibrium unemployment are discussed in relation to a wage bargaining model with extremely general specifications. A multivariate estimation of a minimal model is then used to show two cointegration relations, from which the structural forms of the price and wage equations are identified. The minimal model is subsequently used as a basis to explore the role of a number of variables likely to contribute to the formation of equilibrium unemployment. Examples of these variables are the tax and social security contributions wedge, terms of trade, unemployment benefits and the mismatch. Univariate and multivariate estimates made using an enhanced model therefore reveal the determining role of the wage wedge, the slowdown in productivity gains and, to a lesser extent, replacement earnings in the rise in equilibrium unemployment in France.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 127 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 101-116

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1997_num_127_1_5839

Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1997.5839
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecop

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  1. Yannick L'Horty & Roland Lescure, 1994. "Le chômage d'inadéquation en France : une évaluation," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 113(2), pages 139-154.
  2. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345, September.
  3. Manon Domingues Dos Santos & Yannick L’Horty & Elisabeth TOVAR, 2010. "Une introduction," Revue d'économie régionale et urbaine, Armand Colin, vol. 0(1), pages 4-25.
  4. Manning, Alan, 1993. "Wage Bargaining and the Phillips Curve: The Identification and Specification of Aggregate Wage Equations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 98-118, January.
  5. Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 1996. "Fiscalité, charges sociales, qualifications et emploi," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 125(4), pages 87-105.
  6. J Jerger & J Michaelis, 1995. "Remuneration Systems," CEP Discussion Papers dp0227, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  7. Oswald, Andrew J, 1985. " The Economic Theory of Trade Unions: An Introductory Survey," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(2), pages 160-93.
  8. Assar Lindbeck, 1993. "Unemployment and Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262121751, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Éric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 2000. "35 heures : réduction réduite," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 74(1), pages 53-95.
  2. David Spector, 2001. "Emploi : une analyse critique des politiques malthusiennes," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 150(4), pages 13-31.
  3. Valérie Chauvin & Gaël Dupont & Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le modèle France de l'OFCE. La nouvelle version: e-mod.fr," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1631, Sciences Po.
  4. Olivier Bontout & Sébastien Jean, 1998. "Wages and Unemployment: Trade-off Under Different Labour Market Paradigms," Working Papers 1998-13, CEPII research center.
  5. Heyer, E. & Le Bihan, H. & Lerais, F., 1999. "Relation de Phillips, boucle prix-salaire : une estimation par la méthode de Johansen," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 1999-01, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).

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