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1958-2008, avatars et enjeux de la courbe de Phillips

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  • Hervé Le Bihan

Abstract

The Phillips curve is fifty years old. Since Phillips (1958)?s original contribution this econometric relationship has undergone many criticisms and evolutions. The Phillips curve yet remains a fundamental tool for inflation forecasting and monetary policy analysis. This paper reviews the various versions of the Phillips curve, using examples of recent research for illustration purposes, and discusses the main issues associated with this relation. JEL classification: E31, J30.

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Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): n° 111 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 81-101

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Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_111_0081

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Keywords: Phillips curve; inflation; wages; New Keynesian Phillips curve;

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  1. Gautier, E., 2008. "Les ajustements microéconomiques des prix : une synthèse des modèles théoriques et résultats empiriques," Working papers 211, Banque de France.
  2. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
  3. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Matheron, J. & Fève, P., 2007. "Les modèles DSGE – leur intérêt pour les banques centrales," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 161, pages 41-54.
  4. Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Has Globalization Changed Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 12687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jondeau, Eric & Le Bihan, Herve, 2005. "Testing for the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Additional international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 521-550, May.
  6. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2007. "Modeling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 155-170, 02.
  7. Jondeau, Eric & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2008. "Examining bias in estimators of linear rational expectations models under misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 375-395, April.
  8. Matheron, Julien & Maury, Tristan-Pierre, 2004. "Supply-side refinements and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 391-396, March.
  9. Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Alvarez & Herve Le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lunnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Price Changes in the Euro Area and the United States: Some Facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 171-192, Spring.
  10. Henri Sterdyniak & Hervé Le Bihan, 1998. "Courbe de Phillips et modèle WS-PS. Quelques réflexions," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 49(3), pages 937-948.
  11. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Frank Smets, 2008. "Differences in Interest Rate Policy at the ECB and the Fed: An Investigation with a Medium-Scale DSGE Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 505-521, 03.
  12. Guilloux, S. & Kharroubi, E., 2007. "L’impact désinflationniste de la globalisation 95. Fondements théoriques et estimations empiriques," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 167, pages 95-109.
  13. Irac, D., 2000. "Estimation of a Time Varying NAIRU for France," Working papers 75, Banque de France.
  14. Chauvin, V. & Devulder, A., 2007. "Maquette d’inflation zone euro," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 167, pages 77-94.
  15. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
  16. Irac, D., 2000. "Estimation of a Time Varying NAIRU for France," Working papers 75, Banque de France.
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