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Risque politique et croissance en Afrique

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Author Info

  • Jean-Paul Azam
  • Jean-Claude Berthélemy
  • Stéphane Calipel

Abstract

[fre] On propose un modèle théorique simple dans lequel l'activité de rébellion de l'opposition est une fonction croissante des activités de prédation et de répression du gouvernement, et une fonction décroissante de ses activités de redistribution. Ces prédictions sont testées sur des données nationales africaines, au moyen d'un modèle probit, et ne sont pas rejetées. On montre enfin que le risque politi­que, entendu comme la probabilité de violence politique, a un effet négatif sur la croissance économique. [eng] A simple analytical model is presented where the rebellion activity of the politi­cal opponent is an increasing function of the prédation and repression activity of the government, and a decreasing function of its redistribution activity. These pre­dictions are tested on national African data, using a probit model, and are not rejected. Lastly it is shown that political risk, measured by the probability of politi­cal violence erupting, has a negative impact on economic growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 47 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 819-829

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Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1996_num_47_3_409821

Note: DOI:10.2307/3502583
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/reco

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Cited by:
  1. Mallaye, Douzounet, 2009. "Reformes Monétaires Et Croissance Économique En Zone Cemac
    [Monetary Reforms And Economic Growth In Cemac Zone]
    ," MPRA Paper 19621, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Mehlum,H. & Moene,K.O. & Torvik,R., 1999. "Crime induced poverty traps," Memorandum 35/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  3. Azam, Jean-Paul & Mesnard, Alice, 2001. "Civil War and the Social Contract," IDEI Working Papers 124, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  4. Azam, Jean-Paul, 2003. "The Paradox of Power Reconsidered: A Theory of Political Regimes in Africa," IDEI Working Papers 233, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised 2005.
  5. Hadhek Zouhaier & Kefi Mohamed Karim, 2012. "Democracy, Investment and Economic Growth," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 233-240.
  6. Frédéric PUECH, 2002. "Dépenses publiques d’éducation et instabilité politique : une application à la zone franc par un modèle d’Equilibre Général Calculable," Working Papers 200219, CERDI.

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