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Odhad potenciálneho produktu a produkčnej medzery v slovenských podmienkach
[Estimation of potential product and output gap in slovak conditions]

Author

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  • Emília Zimková
  • Jaroslav Barochovský

Abstract

The efficiency of macroeconomic policies depends on adequate business cycle approximation. Given that potential output and the output gap (the difference between actual and potential output) are not directly observable, their values need to be estimated using alternative statistical, structural, and combined techniques. In this paper the Hodrick-Prescott filter and the Cobb-Douglass production function has been applied on the Slovak conditions. The pross and coins of both methods are analysed. The Hodrick-Prescott filter does not capture the structural changes, which were significant especially in the first half of analysed period. Thus the Cobb-Douglass production function seems to be more appropriate. It enables to detect particular factors of potential output growth as technological progress, capital and labour. Despite of potential shortcomings, this approach is still widely used by international institutions, governments and researchers.

Suggested Citation

  • Emília Zimková & Jaroslav Barochovský, 2007. "Odhad potenciálneho produktu a produkčnej medzery v slovenských podmienkach [Estimation of potential product and output gap in slovak conditions]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2007(4), pages 473-489.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2007:y:2007:i:4:id:609:p:473-489
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.609
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April.
    2. Mr. Guorong Jiang & Mr. Peter Doyle & Louis Kuijs, 2001. "Real Convergence to EU Income Levels: Central Europe From 1990 to the Long Term," IMF Working Papers 2001/146, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Odile Chagny & Jörg Döpke, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 310-332.
    4. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-368, July.
    5. Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Ms. Valerie Cerra, 2000. "Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap: An Application to Sweden," IMF Working Papers 2000/059, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Richard Hindls & Stanislava Hronová, 2012. "Odraz ekonomického vývoje vybraných zemí ve struktuře výdajů na konečnou spotřebu [Reflection of Economic Development of Selected Countries in the Structure of Final Consumption Expenditure]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(4), pages 425-441.
    3. Jiří Mihola & Petr Wawrosz, 2014. "Alternativní metoda měření extenzivních a intenzivních faktorů změny HDP a její aplikace na vývoj HDP USA a Číny [An Alternative Method How to Measure Impact of the Intensive and Extensive Factors ," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(5), pages 583-604.
    4. Martin Boďa & Petra Medveďová & Mariana Považanová, 2015. "(A)symetria v Okunovom zákone v štátoch Vyšehradskej skupiny [(A)symmetry in Okun's Law in the Visegrad Group Countries]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(6), pages 741-758.
    5. Mojmír Hájek & Jiří Mihola, 2009. "Analýza vlivu souhrnné produktivity faktorů na ekonomický růst České republiky [Analysis of Total Factor Productivity Contribution to Economic Growth of the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(6), pages 740-753.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; output gap; potential output; Hodrick-Prescot filter; Cobb-Douglas production funct;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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